- The Jets are a 3-point home underdog against the Steelers.
- The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Steelers and Jets.
- My Jets vs. Steelers prediction is to take the under on New York’s team total.
Aaron Rodgers returns to MetLife Stadium for a Week 1 meeting against the Jets.
Now with Pittsburgh, Rodgers receives a crack at his former team. Last season, Rodgers and the Jets fell 37-15 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
For Pittsburgh, ambitions are clearly high in 2025. To pair with Rodgers’ signing, GM Omar Khan traded for D.K. Metcalf, Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith.
Bet on Jets vs. Steelers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Jets vs. Steelers: NFL Week 1 Odds
Jets vs. Steelers Prediction
Based on Pittsburgh’s defensive success against bad offenses last season, my Jets vs. Steelers prediction is the Jets Team Total Under.
Napkin math suggests this likely comes in around 17.5 or 18.5 when lines open. Ideally, oddsmakers list it at 18.5.
Last year, Pittsburgh excelled against that number vs. bad offenses. Terrell Austin’s defense played eight games against teams carrying a negative DVOA rating, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Steelers allowed only 17.1 points per game. Five of those eight teams stayed under 18.5 points. Four of seven stayed under 17.5 points.
In the three other games, Pittsburgh operated without a key defensive player: Alex Highsmith.
T.J. Watt’s edge rush companion missed games against Dallas, Indianapolis and Cleveland (Week 12). Last year, Highsmith ranked third on Austin’s defense in PFF grades.
A fully healthy defense should give Pittsburgh an edge over New York’s offense.
Justin Fields takes over for Rodgers after leaving Pittsburgh. Behind Rodgers, New York ranked 21st in offensive DVOA against the 10th-hardest set of defenses.
But the Steelers placed eighth in defensive DVOA against the 10th-hardest set of offenses.
Pittsburgh owns one more edge over the Jets: its pass rush against New York’s line.
Per PFF, Pittsburgh ranked first in pressure grades last year. It marks the fourth time in the last five years it ranked fifth or better.
In 2025, the Jets ranked 16th in pass-blocking grades.
If New York can’t protect Fields, I wonder how the Jets move the ball efficiently. Accordingly, I like backing the Jets’ team total under.
Betting Jets vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting
*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 24% | 32% | 36% | 29% |
| Jets | 76% | 68% | 64% | 71% |
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