Almost necessitated by terrible defense, the Lions offense exploded in its opening three games.
Detroit scored 31 points in each of its first three games. As lofty favorites against the Saints and Jets, the Lions produced their two best offensive DVOA ratings of the season.
Through the first three games, Detroit trails only six teams in offensive DVOA. While most of the success has come via the run, Jared Goff posted consecutively strong passing games.
After posting a +9.4% pass offense DVOA rating in Week 1, Detroit’s output in the subsequent two games rose to a +38.7% average.
Detroit Lions Pass Offense DVOA by Week
| Week | Opponent | Pass Offense DVOA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 9.4% |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 42.8% |
| 3 | New York Jets | 34.5% |
Yet the market has seemingly failed to account for the Lions’ offensive strength. Current NFL MVP odds price Goff as a +5000 longshot winner, or a 2% implied probability.
To start the year, the Lions were projected to face the NFL’s easiest schedule by opening win totals.
In Week 2, Dan Campbell’s team played its first and last game against a team with a win total north of 10. The next time Detroit realistically closes a dog? Week 15 in Minnesota.
Entering Week 4, I believe a case exists for Goff to win this award at a higher frequency than his 2% change suggests. Let’s dive into the analysis based on current NFL odds.
Jared Goff (DET) @ +4500NFL MVP Picks: A Case for Jared Goff to Win
Individual brilliance is required to win MVP, but team success plays a part too.
Each MVP since 2013 has led his team to at least 11 wins. All but one of those 12 quarterbacks won at least 12 games.
Over a broader sample size, only three MVP winners since 2000 saw their team amass under 10.5 victories.
Advanced metrics help indicate the winner, too. Every winner since 2013 ranked 10th or better in expected points added (EPA) per play. All but two ranked fifth or better.
Goff ranks seventh in EPA per play entering Week 4. Amongst quarterbacks with 90 or more snaps, he rises to fifth.
The ranking places him ahead of players such as Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. Those three signal callers are priced inside +1400 to win the award.
Additionally, I don’t want to overreact to Brock Purdy’s ascendancy. He built his rise by playing the Cardinals and Dolphins, which possess two of the worst secondaries in the league.
Goff gets the same Cardinals secondary in two weeks. In Week 4, he gets a Panthers defense missing both Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson at corner.
By the time Detroit enters its bye in Week 6, we could be talking about a much different price.
This prediction also includes some betting calculus.
Currently, Detroit is +105 to win at least 11 games and +260 to win the NFC North.
Early returns suggest, to me, the NFC North winner earns the top seed. More competition fills the NFC East & West, especially knowing Purdy still faces three games against Seattle and LA.
As it stands, oddsmakers price Detroit at +1100 to earn the NFC’s top seed.
Given the discrepancy between that price and Goff’s MVP odds, I predict Goff offers bettors a higher win equity than his 2% chance.
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