Based on current NFL Draft odds, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is predicted to go first overall.Â
2026 NFL Draft First Overall Pick Odds
Mendoza opened as the favorite to go first in Pittsburgh. As early as May 2025, oddsmakers priced Mendoza at +10000 to go first overall.Â
After a Heisman campaign and potential title, Mendoza now enters the Draft with a 99% implied probability to go first overall.Â
Movement occurred last week after Oregon quarterback Dante Moore announced he would return to school.Â
Prior to that announcement, oddsmakers priced Mendoza at -550 to go first. That price implied a 84.6% implied probability.Â
Who Has the #1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
The Las Vegas Raiders have the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Las Vegas earned the selection with a 3-14 record in the 2025-26 NFL season. After starting the season 2-4, the Raiders lost 10 straight before a Week 18 win over the Chiefs.
Ownership elected for a coaching change after the season. This year, former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will take over for Pete Carroll.
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