Based on current NFL Draft odds, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is predicted to go first overall.
NFL Draft Odds: First Overall Pick 2026
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | -10000 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | +5000 |
| Arvell Reese | +8000 |
| Caleb Downs | +12500 |
| Francis Mauigoa | +15000 |
| Ty Simpson | +15000 |
| David Bailey | +15000 |
| Spencer Fano | +25000 |
| Carnell Tate | +25000 |
| Drew Allar | +50000 |
Mendoza opened as the favorite to go first in Pittsburgh. As early as May 2025, oddsmakers priced Mendoza at +10000 to go first overall.
After a Heisman campaign and potential title, Mendoza now enters the Draft with a 99% implied probability to go first overall.
Movement occurred last week after Oregon quarterback Dante Moore announced he would return to school.
Prior to that announcement, oddsmakers priced Mendoza at -550 to go first. That price implied a 84.6% implied probability.
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