NFL Survivor Picks: Best Week 4 Pool Predictions

Below, NFL survivor pool players can find my Week 4 picks based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

For those new to the format, survivor contests ask players to pick one straight-up winner each week. However, players can only use each team once during the season.

Best NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4 2026

Minnesota Vikings (-10) vs Miami Dolphins

Prior to the De’Von Achane injury, a world existed where the Dolphins could compete against the Vikings.

Now I’m left questioning how Miami moves the ball. As much as I distrust the Vikings, it’s largely a function of an anemic Minnesota offense.

Minnesota leads the NFL in defensive DVOA entering Week 4. As bad as the offense looked on Sunday, the defense still allowed only two red zone visits to Tampa Bay.

The Vikings defense simultaneously ranks second in rush defense DVOA. Without Achane, I worry about a Miami rushing attack that sits 11th in DVOA ahead of this matchup.

If this game becomes a trap, it’s entirely the doing of Minnesota’s offense. Justin Jefferson left Sunday’s game with an injury, so he could miss this game.

Does it matter? I’m honestly not sure. Miami is currently fielding Jason Marshall Jr., JuJu Brents and Chris Johnson as corners.

If Jefferson plays, this becomes a no-brainer selection with no future equity. If he sits, the decision becomes more complex.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No chance I’m considering the Packers with Baker Mayfield starting for the Bucs. The good news? Green Bay’s horrific defense will instead face Tampa backup Jalon Daniels with extra prep time.

Green Bay finished as one of the more volatile defenses in three weeks. Are they the defense that allowed 37 on average to the Vikings and Falcons? Or are they the unit that allowed 17 to the Jets?

If you’re Green Bay, it’s likely easy to sell out against the run in this game. The Buccaneers’ potential advantage comes on the ground as the offense ranks 21st in rush DVOA.

On defense, the Packers rank 26th in total DVOA, including 31st against the run.

But most of that poor rating comes from facing Bijan Robinson. On short rest, Green Bay regressed from a -18.1% rush defense DVOA rating in Weeks 1-2 to a 56.9% rating.

Bucky Irving left Sunday’s game with an injury. Put simply, a Daniels-Kenneth Gainwell combination doesn’t inspire a ton of optimism.

Tampa Bay’s defensive advantage is mitigated here, too. The Bucs rank 19th in pass defense DVOA compared to seventh in rush defense. However, Green Bay passes better than it runs.

With extra time to prepare, the Packers could amplify that advantage.