Packers vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

• The Patriots are -2.5 point favorites vs the Packers
• Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (5-3-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (5-3-0) on Nov. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-125).

The Packers vs. Patriots Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Packers vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Packers vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 52.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

• Jordan Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• Kaleb Johnson has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 90% ROI)
• Jordan Love has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 46% ROI)
• Christopher Brooks has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.75 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Mack Hollins has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)
• Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
• Hunter Henry has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Packers

Packers Best Bets:

• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

• The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 20.57% ROI).

• Packers are 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 5.63% ROI
• Packers are 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
• PackersPackersPackers are 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -3.43% ROI).

• Patriots are 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 24.83% ROI
• Patriots are 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
• Patriots are 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

Packers are 12-6-1 (.632) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush (T-10th-best in NFL) and just .200 when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season (T-7th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 10-1-1 (.833) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-3rd-best in NFL) and just .250 when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (T-7th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 10-3 (.769) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down (8th-best in NFL) and just .200 when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down since the 2025 season (4th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 10-5 (.667) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes in a game (9th-best in NFL) and just .333 when allowing 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (T-9th-worst in NFL).

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Patriots are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .581.

The Patriots are undefeated (10-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .628.

The Patriots are 10-1 (.909) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

The Patriots are 2-2 (.500) after a win this season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .488.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have been successful on 54.2% of pass attempts since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a success rate of 52.8% on pass attempts since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Patriots have averaged 0.09 epa per play with motion since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 0.08 epa per play against motion since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on 52.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a success rate of 52.3% on pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Packers have a third down conversion rate of 44.4% since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Panthers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 46.4% since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Packers have gone three and out on 4.2% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Panthers have forced three and outs on 5.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

Packers TEs have gained 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed 11.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers have run successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have gone three and out 10 times in the 2nd quarter this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Packers have run the ball on 32% of plays (137 carries/429 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have averaged 5.5 yards per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3.3.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots have run successful plays on 54% of pass attempts since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 41% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Patriots have 7 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 100% of pass attempts open coverage in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 100% of plays open coverage in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.9 first read passes (111 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 99.4.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 88% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense blitzed 23 times in Week 7 — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense blitzed on 35% of plays in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Only 11% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of 143.8 against play action passes (24 Pass Attempts) since Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 91.5.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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