- The Bills are -6.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New England Patriots (1-2-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-0-0) on Oct. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +270 |
| Bills | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -325 |
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 61.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 61% ROI)
- TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.10 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 61% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Patriots
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +400 |
| James Cook | +525 |
| Dalton Kincaid | +850 |
| DJ Moore | +950 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +1200 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Patriots
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | -155 |
| James Cook | -110 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +155 |
| Dalton Kincaid | +160 |
| DJ Moore | +175 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 |
| DJ Moore | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| Mack Hollins | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 |
| Romeo Doubs | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Hunter Henry | 34.5 -111 | 34.5 -118 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 88.5 -115 | 88.5 -115 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
| Drake Maye | 27.5 -110 | 27.5 -120 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+16.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+15.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+3.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -3.08% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -23.53% ROI
- Patriots are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- PatriotsPatriotsPatriots are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 3-0 (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bills are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 43.8% ROI
- Bills are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Bills are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are undefeated (4-0) after a loss since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .583.
The Patriots are undefeated (8-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .648.
The Patriots are 8-1 (.889) when leading at the end of first quarter since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .696.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
Bills are 15-0 (1.000) when scoring 22 or more points (T-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).
The Bills are undefeated (3-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Bills are 11-1 (.917) when not losing a fumble since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .587.
The Bills are 13-4 (.765) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2025 season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .612.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have thrown the ball just 46.7% of the time this season — 5th-lowest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 5.5 yards per dropback this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
The Bills have gained at least 5 yards on 47.0% of first down plays since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed at least 5 yards on 45.9% of first down plays since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have been successful on 50.7% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed a success rate of 46.8% on rush attempts with a base front since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have been successful on 70.4% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed a success rate of 66.7% on rush attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have thrown the ball just 48.0% of the time since the 2025 season — 4th-lowest in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 6.0 yards per dropback since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged 0.16 epa per play in the first half since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 0.07 epa per play in the first half since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots have averaged -0.67 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
The Patriots have averaged -1.64 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.
The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory since the 2025 season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged -0.36 epa per play on passing attempts on 1st down this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have averaged 0.90 epa per play against open coverage this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.47.
The Bills have rushed for 20+ yards 5 times this season — T-most in NFL.
The Bills have averaged 14.1 yards per play against open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9.7.
The Bills have rushed for 8 TDs this season — most in NFL.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts first read passes in Week 3 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
The Patriots defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 12% when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4%.
The Patriots defense has allowed 7.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 15 touches) in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.0.
Only 9% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone in the 1st half since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
Offenses facing the Bills targeted TEs 17% of the time (98 Pass Attempts/574 plays) since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
The Bills defense has allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (524 carries) since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of 127.3 when blitzing (17 Pass Attempts) this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 85.4.
The Bills defense has allowed 0.8 rushing TDs per game (16/20) in the 1st half since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.4.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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