Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

• The Patriots are -7.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
• Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The New England Patriots (4-3-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (1-5-0) on Nov. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Miami, FL.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (+100).

The Patriots vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 76.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 56.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Demario Douglas has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.75 Units / 56% ROI)
• Drake Maye has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Greg Dulcich has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
• Greg Dulcich has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jaylen Wright has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
• Greg Dulcich has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Chris Bell has hit the Longest Reception Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

• The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.20 Units / 36% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 10.46% ROI).

• Patriots are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 23.58% ROI
• Patriots are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
• PatriotsPatriotsPatriots are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -19.7% ROI).

• Dolphins are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -55% ROI
• Dolphins are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Dolphins are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Patriots are winless (0-3) on the road this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .490.

The Patriots are undefeated (5-0) after a loss since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .430.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

The Patriots are 10-1 (.909) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-7th-best in NFL) and just .188 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (T-5th-worst in NFL).

Dolphins are 1-14 (.067) when allowing 22 or more points (T-4th-worst in NFL) and .875 when allowing less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-7th-best in NFL).

The Dolphins are winless (0-6) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2025 season They play the Patriots in Week 8 (Ranks fourth in passing offense).

The Dolphins are winless (0-3) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins WRs averaged 10.5 yards after the catch last week — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots allowed 13.9 yards after catch per reception to WRs last week — worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 26.7 yard line since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed an average drive start position from the 26.8 yard line since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of 62.5% in the fourth quarter since Week 4 — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 53.3% in the 4th quarter since Week 4 — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have averaged 0.09 epa per play with motion since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 0.08 epa per play against motion since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on 54.2% of pass attempts since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a success rate of 52.8% on pass attempts since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on 52.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a success rate of 52.3% on pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots have scored 6 TDs from their own territory since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have committed 8 turnovers in the red zone since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have 7 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of 65% against the blitz this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 31% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Dolphins have thrown the ball 21% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/53 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.48.

The Dolphins have run the ball on 55% of plays (91 carries/165 plays) since Week 4 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense blitzed 23 times in Week 7 — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense blitzed on 35% of plays in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Patriots defense have allowed 0.37 epa per play against play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.05.

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of 143.8 against play action passes (24 Pass Attempts) since Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 91.5.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 58% of plays on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Dolphins defense have allowed 0.85 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.14.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 61% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (505 completions/690 attempts) since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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