- The Patriots are currently a 3.5-point home favorite against the Chargers.
- Not since the 2006 postseason have the Patriots won in the wild-card round.
- My Patriots vs Chargers prediction is for the Chargers (+3.5) to cover the spread.
NFL MVP candidate Drake Maye begins his postseason career on SNF against the Chargers.Â
New England earned the two seed with a throttling of Miami in Week 18. Mike Vrabel, the NFL Coach of the Year odds leader, led the Patriots to a 14-3 record in his first season.Â
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers ended the season on a two-game losing streak. However, Harbaugh and Herbert closed as a road underdog twice since Week 13, going 2-0 ATS.Â
Bet on Patriots vs. Chargers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Patriots vs. Chargers: NFL Wild Card Odds
Patriots vs. Chargers Prediction
Based on the Chargers’ strength in the secondary and Justin Herbert’s strong record as an underdog, my Patriots vs Chargers prediction is the Chargers Spread (+3.5, -110).Â
New England may win this game, but it’s too many points to lay with an inexperienced postseason quarterback.Â
Drake Maye has built his MVP race candidacy on the deep ball. Only the Rams have completed more passes 20 yards downfield than the Patriots.Â
But the Chargers’ defense has allowed the second-fewest 20+ yard completions this season. Additionally, the Chargers qualify as Maye’s toughest pass defense since Week 8.Â
If the deep passes suddenly dry up, I question how the Patriots offense moves the ball at a rate that earns a high margin of victory.Â
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers offense gets a reprieve this round. Excluding Week 18, Los Angeles ranked 19th in offensive DVOA against the 14th-hardest set of defenses.Â
Comparatively, New England ranked 25th in defensive DVOA, having played the easiest set of opposing offenses.Â
Add in Justin Herbert & Jim Harbaugh are 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs, and I predict the Chargers cover at New England.Â
Betting Patriots vs. Chargers: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers (+3.5) | 41% | 57% |
| Patriots (-3.5) | 59% | 43% |
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