- The Patriots are a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders.
- The favorites have won each of the Raiders' last 13 games.
- My Patriots vs Raiders prediction is for the Raiders to cover the spread.
The Mike Vrabel era begins in Foxborough with a Week 1 meeting against the Raiders.
New England, which finished last in the AFC East last season, enters 2025 with new hope. Along with an easy schedule, New England owns the second-shortest price in the AFC East odds.
Las Vegas finished last in the AFC West last season. Myriad changes occurred in the offseason with Pete Carroll taking over as head coach and Geno Smith arriving to play quarterback.
Bet on Patriots vs. Raiders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Patriots vs. Raiders: NFL Week 1 Odds
Patriots vs. Raiders Prediction
Based on Drake Maye’s inexperience as a favorite and the previous success of underdogs against bad teams, my Patriots vs Raiders prediction is the Raiders Spread (+3, -110).
This might be one of my favorite bets for Week 1 if it stays at +3 or better.
Carroll has previously excelled as a market underdog. For his career, he’s 52-34-3 ATS (60.5%) in that spot, including 24-16-3 at +3 or shorter.
He inherits a Raiders team that should take a big step forward defensively in 2025.
Two seasons ago, the Raiders ranked eighth in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. Last season, Las Vegas dropped to 18th.
The drop makes sense when you consider Las Vegas went from the 18th-hardest schedule of offenses in 2023 to the sixth-hardest in 2025.
Additionally, only the Lions lost more adjusted games to injuries on defense than Las Vegas last season.
From a matchup standpoint, the Raiders’ defensive line should wreak havoc on New England’s offensive line.
Per ESPN, the Raiders finished 10th in pass-rush win rate and 12th in run-stop win rate. New England finished 31st and 32nd in the corresponding offensive rankings.
While I’m bullish on New England’s season-long prospects improving the offense, this remains a team that ranked 30th in offensive DVOA last season.
Plus, New England closed a market favorite in exactly ZERO GAMES last season. Now it’s sitting on a key number? That further fuels my interest in the Raiders.
History suggests it’s a good spot to back Las Vegas as well.
Since 2004, road underdogs in the first two games of the season are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), assuming two factors:
- Both teams missed the postseason the prior year
- The underdog finished with 4-8 wins in the prior season
As a result, I like the Raiders to stay within the number in Week 1.
Betting Patriots vs. Raiders: NFL Public Betting
*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 41% | 18% | 47% | 52% |
| Patriots | 59% | 82% | 53% | 48% |
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