NFL Upset Picks Week 9: Packers Beat Patriots

Below, bettors can find my two best NFL upset picks for Week 9 based on current NFL odds.

Early this season, underdogs were consistently capturing outright victories. Entering Week 8, all dogs are 41-79-1. However, it’s worth noting dogs are 7-21 in Weeks 7 and 8.

Perhaps most impressively, at least one underdog priced at +7 or higher has won every week. In Week 8, the Cardinals came from behind to beat Dallas 33-30 in overtime.

Past performance offers no guarantee of future success, but here are the underdogs I’m giving a chance to win outright in Week 9.

NFL Upset Picks This Week

Cleveland Browns Moneyline (+115) at New Orleans Saints

[Writer’s Note: This analysis was written prior to Cleveland placing Deshaun Watson in the concussion protocol. Confidence in the prediction drops if the Browns start a backup quarterback]. 

Two concerns stand in the way of fading the Saints.

First, Kellen Moore’s team arrives at Sunday’s game off a Week 8 bye. Second, it’s the third straight road game for Cleveland with no added time to prepare.

Is that enough to earn New Orleans a third victory this season? Potentially. But the matchup breakdown gives a hefty advantage to Cleveland.

What has impressed me the most about the Browns is their recent ability to run the ball. They’ll need to continue that momentum in order to beat a Saints defense ranked 31st against the run.

In Weeks 1-2, Cleveland played Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Both qualify as outstanding run defenses and held Cleveland to a -52.5% rush offense DVOA percentage.

Since Week 3, the Browns offense has started to improve. Over the last six games, their rush offense DVOA rating rose to -0.6%, including 3.4% over the last five.

Of course, most of New Orleans’ troubles against the run stemmed from playing good rushing attacks. Entering this game, the defense played three top-seven rushing offenses.

But the Browns’ five-game sample size places them on par with Atlanta’s season-long metrics. Plus, the Browns defense usually finds itself in trouble due to a poor run stop.

New Orleans lacks the running back firepower to exploit that weakness. If Tyler Shough is forced to play from behind, I predict the Browns are live to pull an upset in New Orleans.

Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+138) at New England Patriots

Mike Vrabel’s Patriots trailed Miami 13-3 at halftime with extra rest. Ultimately, Drake Maye produced a pair of second-half explosives to come from behind and win 24-19.

Now, the Patriots turn around and face a rested Packers team with the weapons to exploit their defensive weakness.

Since Week 4, Green Bay has averaged a 32.4% pass offense DVOA rating. Had they accomplished that rating for the season, they’d rank eighth in pass offense DVOA.

New England sits eighth in pass defense DVOA (-3.2%), but the unit recorded some concerning performances. Here are some of their worst ratings:

• Week 1 at Seattle: 26.6%
• Week 6 vs Jets: 11.5%
• Week 7 at Bears: 32.2%

Even if you dismiss the performances against Seattle and Chicago, the performance against the Jets is troubling. In that game, New England’s offense posted a -5.4% net success rate.

Only a spot separates the Jets and Packers in pass offense DVOA for the entire season. Defensively, Green Bay also ranks third against the pass.

Maye can easily come from behind to beat the Dolphins, the 29th-ranked pass defense. I question if he can do the same against Jonathan Gannon’s unit.

This season, Green Bay finished 4-0 when the opponent amassed under 100 rushing yards. New England, like last year, has struggled to run the ball.

Given those factors, I predict the Packers take advantage of their mini bye and win.