Patriots vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Pick: Week 5

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Patriots vs Raiders prediction for the AFC clash on Sunday.

Patriots vs Raiders Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total

Raiders vs Patriots Prediction

Based on New England’s improved offensive showing in Week 4 against Buffalo and Las Vegas’ defensive regression, my Patriots vs Raiders prediction is the Patriots Over 24.5 Points (-108). 

Bettors finally saw a quality performance from the Patriots offense in Week 4. After reeling against Seattle, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, Drake Maye led New England to 29 points.

As a team, the Patriots finished first in expected points added (EPA) per play and second in offensive success rate.

Maye contributed a lion’s share to the performance. Excluding MNF, he ranked second in dropback EPA vs. sixth in dropback success rate.

A week after going 0-for-3 in the red zone, the Patriots finished a perfect 3-for-3 against Buffalo’s defense.

The positive regression should continue on Sunday against the Raiders. Las Vegas, as home dogs to Kansas City, delivered a second straight defensive dud.

Las Vegas finished 19th in defensive EPA per play of the first 30 teams. The unit performed better against the pass, but Kansas City lost Rashee Rice early in the game.

Patrick Mahomes still completed 15 passes for 225 yards in his absence. Pre-injury, Tyquan Thornton caught five receptions for 111 yards.

Right now, the Raiders’ pass rush is consistently failing to get home. As it stands, the defense ranks 28th in pass rush win rate and has allowed at least 27 points in two straight.

Both New Orleans and Kansas City finished with four red zone chances vs. the Raiders defense. The trend line goes down after Malik Willis and Justin Herbert notched five combined.

Las Vegas held New England to 13 points in Week 1 last year. However, it was Maye’s first game under Josh McDaniels. Suffice it to say much has changed since last September.

Wait for the weather to become clear, in case of a windy day. However, calm conditions lead me to predict the Patriots’ offense will continue their offensive success.