2 Best NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 3

Below, bettors can find my best NFL Player Props for Week 3 based on NFL odds.

Evaluating defenses after only two games remains a difficult task. Still, some early data points are emerging on how offenses can best attack their Week 3 opponents.

Let’s dive into my two predictions for Sunday’s action. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

2 Best NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 3

Jahmyr Gibbs 50+ Receiving Yards (+155) vs Jets

Give the Jets credit for their defense’s ability to create pressure against bad offensive lines. The defense should continue that trend this week in Detroit, another bad unit.

But the Jets have yet to face a running back like Gibbs who actively participates as a pass catcher. It helps explain why New York has allowed only 16 yards per game to opposing backs.

Gibbs cleared this line in Week 2 against the Bills. He caught six passes on eight targets for 61 yards in a trailing game state. In Week 1, he caught five passes for 30 yards on five targets.

He’ll likely continue to see a heavy workload if the Lions fail to protect Jared Goff.

So far this season, Goff’s average time to throw is 2.8 seconds. Only eight teams have seen shorter release times than the Lions.

Plus, the Jets struggled to defend opposing running backs last year. Aaron Glenn’s unit ranked 31st in DVOA against the position, allowing 33.3 receiving yards on average.

The sample size includes some heavy yardage outputs against good passing attacks. From Weeks 15-17, the Jets defense allowed 65 yards per game with two backs clearing this line.

Pair the trends with Gibbs’ price and I predict he clears this line for the second straight game.

Bucky Irving 75+ Rushing Yards (+165)

A lot of the focus on Minnesota’s defense centers around their high pressure rates. For the Bucs, the easiest way to avoid facing pressure is a consistent rushing attack.

Irving rushed for 89 yards on 17 attempts against the Browns. In Week 1, he managed 45 yards on eight attempts against the Bengals.

Excluding turnovers, Tampa Bay ranks eighth in rushing success rate and fifth in EPA per play.

Minnesota looked strong against the run in Week 1. However, it came against a Packers offense that was missing Josh Jacobs.

Last week, the Vikings showed some potential shortcomings against the Bears. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combined for 92 yards on the ground. As a team, the Bears rushed for 134.

Irving has dominated the rushing snap share for Tampa Bay. Through two games, he owns 25 of Tampa’s 45 attempts, good for an 18-attempt edge over Kenneth Gainwell.

As strong as Minnesota’s defense has looked, this offers its toughest matchup to date. I believe Irving clears this line at a higher rate than his odds suggest.