- The Steelers are currently a 3.5-point home underdog against the Ravens.
- The Ravens have won each of their last five road games.
- My Steelers vs Ravens prediction is for the Ravens (-3.5) to cover the spread.
The AFC North title is on the line Sunday night in Pittsburgh as the Steelers host the Ravens.
Pittsburgh had a chance to claim the title on Sunday in Cleveland. But the team delivered a total dud in a 10-6 loss and now faces a win-and-in scenario against Baltimore.
John Harbaugh’s team won in Green Bay as four-point underdogs on Saturday. Derrick Henry, in Lamar Jackson’s absence, rushed for over 200 yards and three touchdowns.
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Steelers vs. Ravens: NFL Week 18 Odds
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
Based on the offensive injuries for the Steelers and Baltimore’s significant defensive improvements, my Steelers vs Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3.5, +100).
D.K. Metcalf is suspended, Calvin Austin III could miss the game and Darnell Washington broke his arm in Cleveland.
For Baltimore, the strategy here is simple: load up the box, force third and long and make the Steelers throw a downfield pass.
Washington’s absence is the biggest detriment to the Steelers. This season, Pittsburgh is 6-1 when he plays over 40 snaps vs. 3-7 when he doesn’t.
Of course, it’s a slight concern that one of those wins was a 27-22 win at Baltimore. But the Steelers also had Metcalf, who accounted for 52% of Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards.
As a team, the Steelers managed only 34 rushing yards in Baltimore, which ranks ninth in rush defense DVOA.
With those skill players absent, I’ll be stunned if the Steelers manage to score, barring a fluky defensive touchdown.
In terms of the Ravens offense, they can only stop themselves. John Harbaugh appears to have learned his lesson from sitting Henry for the final 12 minutes against New England.
Pittsburgh should be better with Derrick Harmon in the lineup, but Henry’s volume is what concerns me in this game.
Plus, the Ravens get an extra day of rest for Sunday’s game. That should help the offense against Pittsburgh, which has faced the 25th-hardest set of offenses.
While it’s worrisome to bet against Mike Tomlin as a dog, I question how Pittsburgh’s offense moves the ball. Accordingly, I predict Baltimore covers the spread.
Betting Steelers vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting
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