NFL Upset Picks This Week: Colts Shock Vikings

Below, bettors can find my two best NFL upset picks for Week 7 based on current NFL odds.

This season, underdogs have consistently captured unlikely victories. Entering Week 7, all dogs are 34-57-1 with five or more outright wins in five straight weeks.

Twice this year, dogs finished with a 20% return on investment (Weeks 3 and 6).

Past performance offers no guarantee of future success, but here are the underdogs I’m giving a puncher’s chance in Week 7.

NFL Upset Predictions This Week

Indianapolis Colts Moneyline (+200) at Minnesota Vikings

How the line has moved for Vikings vs Colts is worth acknowledging for Sunday’s game. Indianapolis opened as a six-point road dog and has since moved to +5.5.

That factor alone lacks reason to take the Colts. What is fascinating is that the movement occurred despite overwhelming public support for the favorite.

As of Monday evening, 25% of ATS bets and 10% of straight moneyline bets back the Vikings. However, my belief is that the Vikings’ defense is slightly fraudulent.

Minnesota leads the NFL in defensive DVOA, but the unit has faced the second-softest schedule. Additionally, the unit showed vulnerability against the run vs. Miami and Chicago.

Red zone turnovers aided Minnesota in a win over Chicago. As heavy home favorites against Miami, the Vikings won 15-10 despite allowing 121 yards and a 2% DVOA rating on the ground.

By 2026 DVOA data, the Colts pose the stiffest test for Minnesota’s run defense. Entering Week 7, Shane Steichen’s unit ranks seventh in rush offense DVOA.

Minnesota delivered a convincing performance once all year. It came at New Orleans, where the Vikings erased a one-point halftime deficit.

However, they’ve still claimed five wins off three halftime leads. Indy, meanwhile, won two games despite leading at halftime in four of those six games.

Off a fluky loss against the Titans, Indianapolis possesses greater win equity than these odds suggest in my estimation.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (+135) at Carolina Panthers

I’m simply not buying there are three points separating these two teams. Carolina finds itself in a sell-high spot after beating the lowly Eagles.

It gives the team two wins over backup quarterbacks this season. In Week 2, the offense throttled Atlanta’s defense while limiting Cooper Rush.

However, the Bucs could replace Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield for Sunday’s game. It provides an opportunity for some positive regression by a team owning a misleading record.

Todd Bowles’ team sits 1-5 entering Week 7. However, the Bucs posted a 1-4 record in one-possession games and have turned three halftime leads into one victory.

Carolina beat Detroit at home by a narrow margin in a game they easily could have lost.

They also remain a negative regression candidate from last year, with seven of eight wins coming by three points or less. It includes a 23-20 home win over the Bucs as a dog.

Now, the market is rating the Panthers as a favorite. It leaves me scratching my head when the offense has shown itself well against almost exclusively bad defenses.

The Bucs still sit fifth in defensive DVOA after Week 6. It qualifies as the hardest opponent for the Panthers offense all season.

With both games decided by three or less last year, I predict the Bucs win at a higher frequency than their 43% implied probability.