2 NFL Week 4 Matchups to Watch

The Week 4 NFL slate is riddled with matchups where bettors can gather new information.

Through three games, some teams have surprised me with their performance. For example, I did not project the Raiders as a top-10 pass defense through their opening three contests.

Still, it’s my belief there are Week 4 games where I’m questioning a unit’s true quality. Here are the two most intriguing ones to me based on current NFL odds.

2 NFL Week 4 Matchups to Watch

Commanders vs Colts: Colts Rushing Offense vs. Commanders Rush Defense

I did not have Washington ranking first in rush defense DVOA through three weeks on my bingo card.

The unit has faced Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams and Jadarian Price. Even excluding last week’s game against Seattle, the run defense has performed legitimately well.

Philadelphia and Dallas averaged a -25.7% rush offense DVOA against Dan Quinn’s defense. Those two performances alone would put Washington seventh in the rankings.

But they now head to London to face a good Colts rushing attack. Last year, Indianapolis ranked fifth in rush offense DVOA. Through three games this year, the offense sits 10th.

Indianapolis travels to London fresh off its worst rushing performance of the season. As a home underdog to Houston, the Colts rushing attack posted a -28.7% DVOA rating.

In two games prior, Shane Steichen’s unit recorded a 28.1% rating against Baltimore and a -2.7% rating in Kansas City.

I suspect Washington will fail to keep Jonathan Taylor contained at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It could signal a change in future matchups.

49ers vs Broncos: 49ers Pass Offense vs Broncos Secondary

We’ll learn a lot about one of these teams’ supposed brilliant units on Sunday.

San Francisco has dominated opposing secondaries. Their 102.8% pass offense DVOA rating is 33.5% better than second, or as big as the gap between second and ninth.

Most of the rating comes from playing the Dolphins and Cardinals. In those two games, San Francisco cleared a 130% pass offense DVOA rating in both games.

Denver is not the Cardinals or Dolphins secondary. However, the unit still surrendered its worst pass defense DVOA rating of the season on Sunday against the Rams.

It’s bad enough before you remember Puka Nacua failed to play against Denver.

This Summer, I pegged both San Francisco’s offense and Denver’s defense as potential regression candidates. This game will provide evidence of which unit is fraudulent.

If it’s the Niners, it’s worth stepping in front of them with a good defense. If it’s Denver, I become less fearful of the defense playing competent offenses.