British Open 2026: Predictions, Best Bets

The fourth and final golf major is here with the British Open from Royal Birkdale in England.

The event was last held here in 2017, when Jordan Spieth overtook Matt Kuchar on the back nine to win.

Scores this week will be dictated by the weather, especially the wind. If the winds are calm, scores will likely be low. If there is a lot of wind, scores could be high.

Going into the week, Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win at +750.

When it comes to selecting players, it’s hard to look extensively at metrics because links-style golf is so much different than playing on typical PGA Tour courses in America.

It’s better to prioritize past history, not only at this tournament, but also past history at links-style courses in general.

*odds as of July 14

British Open Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the British Open with a 11.76% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 10%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

British Open Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler Outright Winner (+750)

This price was near +500 prior to Scheffler missing the cut at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. It’s not often Scheffler is a buy-low option, but that seems to be the case this week.

To me, missing the cut could work in Scheffler’s favor. No. 1, he was on-site at Royal Birkdale over the weekend, getting a few extra days of work at the course. And No. 2, missing his first cut in 78 tournaments, could give him some extra motivation this week.

While it’s still a down year for him, he’s still ranked in the top 15 in each of the primary strokes gained categories on the PGA Tour (off the tee, approach, around the green, putting).

As the No. 1 player in the game, it feels wrong for him not to win a major this year.

Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (+275)

It has been an interesting year for Morikawa, who was rock-solid at the start of it, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but then was derailed by a back injury. But, he seems back to full strength, evident by a solo third at the Travelers Championship in his last start.

Despite everything that has happened, he’s been solid in the majors, finishing T-7 at the Masters and T-17 at the U.S. Open.

It has been hit or miss for him at the Open Championship of late, missing three out of four cuts after his 2021 win, but he’s trending in the right direction and is primed for another good week.

Cameron Young Top-20 Finish (+160)

Young’s price has dropped a bit given his recent form — no top 25s in his last four starts — but he’s still having the best year of his PGA Tour career.

I considered him for an outright, but this seems like even better value.

Young has had some success at previous Open Championships, finishing T-8 in 2023 and second in 2022.

Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finish (+250)

This number feels too good to pass up for Spieth returning to the course he won at in 2017.

Spieth acknowledged this week that he’s frustrated with his results not matching where he feels his game is at the moment. In his mind, he believes he’s due to break through, especially at a major.

Returning to a place that should give off good vibes, I like Spieth this week.