Open Championship Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Back when it was the final major on the annual calendar and, perhaps, on whatever priority ranking we employed, the PGA Championship had a slogan: “Glory’s Last Shot.”

It was a little gimmicky, sure – I mean, Augusta National doesn’t need a slogan – but it got the point across in a schmaltzy double-entendre sort of way.

Simply reading those words on some signage while entering the host venue would remind any player who hadn’t won one of the year’s first three majors that he had a final opportunity to get it done, or else suffer a long, cold winter before trying again in another eight months.

Those who preside over The Open Championship don’t need, nor want, to dress up what is now the final biggie on the schedule with any specific reminder, but trust me: The players are aware. Major championship season moves quicker these days and to quote a 1980s teenager, “If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”

It feels like just yesterday that we were attempting to prognosticate the upcoming Masters and now we’re at a point where competitors start feeling the pinch.

Scottie Scheffler hasn’t struggled to win majors, but the four-time champion needs to successfully defend his title or suffer a year of his prime without another green Wikipedia square. Matt Fitzpatrick is enjoying the best campaign of his career, yet it might forever ring a bit hollow without a second major title. Most of us believed Cameron Young and Viktor Hovland and certainly Tommy Fleetwood would bag a first before the likes of J.J. Spaun and Aaron Rai, but that’s not how it worked out. And the window for a second continues to close for Justin Rose and Adam Scott.

This week’s winner at Royal Birkdale might very well check one of these boxes or cinch a lingering narrative. For everyone else, it will undoubtedly leave them pondering how to improve at these events starting next April.

Glory’s Last Shot? This one doesn’t need the slogan. We all know what it means.

Let’s get to the selections, starting with an unprecedented trio of top-tier outrights, which either exemplifies how much equality there is on this board or how much uncertainty we have from some of the world’s best players.

Open Championship Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Picks: Collin Morikawa (+2800), Justin Rose (+3300) and Robert MacIntyre (+3300)

Ever get invited to a wedding and have to check a box for steak, chicken or fish, only to consider all three for a few days and wind up checking every box, knowing that at best you’ll get a taste of each dish and at worst somebody else will just make the decision for you? Uh yeah, me neither.

My trio of outright selections for this year’s final major championship is less about being indecisive because I’m not completely confident in any of them and more about being indecisive because – like that wedding dinner – I really want a taste of all three.

Let’s start with Morikawa. Five years ago, he showed up at the Scottish for his first-ever journey to Europe, finished T-71 and explained that he’d yet to figure out how to hit shots off the firmer turf on a links course. One week later, he won the Claret Jug at Royal St. George’s, proving he’s a pretty quick learner.

Playing through injury and while becoming a father for the first time this season, Morikawa has been as impressive as ever, winning at Pebble Beach, posting top-10s at the Masters and RBC Heritage when he could barely walk and finishing solo third at the Travelers Championship in his most recent start.

Then there’s Rose, who’s received plenty of acclaim for his work ethic and desire well into his 40s, when so many other top-level players start pivoting into the next phase of their careers. A midseason switch to McLaren irons felt like a step in the wrong direction, but once again, he’s proven people wrong, quickly figuring out the new sticks.

There are plenty of great storylines lurking this week, but Rose contending for a title 28 years after he was T-4 at this very course as an amateur would be amongst the best of ‘em. With results of T-3, T-10 and T-11 in this year’s first three majors, he still belongs on the short list of potential contenders.

As for Bobby Mac, he contended at his national championship, last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, for a third time in the last four years, ultimately finishing in a share of third place. At The Open, he’s finished in the top-eight in three of the last six editions, including a T-7 at Royal Portrush last year. That’s exactly the kind of recent form and tournament history combo we seek on a regular basis – and there’s an excellent chance that MacIntyre is still riding golf’s figurative roller coaster on the way up, as he’d posted six straight results outside the top-40, but has now been inside the top-15 in three of his last four.

Nobody enjoys links golf more than this Scotsman and it would be surprising to not see him in the mix once again this week.

Aggressive Picks: David Puig (+15000) and Tom McKibbin (+20000)

In his classic 1961 novel “Catch-22,” author Joseph Heller defined the story’s paradox by writing: “There was only one catch and that was Catch-22. … Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to he was sane and had to.” So much in life comes intertwined in a Catch-22 and golf betting is hardly immune to these circumstances.

To wit: If a talented player has a hefty outright price attached to his name, he probably hasn’t been playing well enough to justify support in this market; however, this hefty price is enough to keep us interested in a talented player, no matter the recent performance. If that sounds like I’m making excuses before I’m even making selections, well, you’re not wrong.

But look, I’m just trying to give you guys a little hope here. After J.J. Spaun and Aaron Rai won recent major championships from pre-tournament triple-digit prices, we’re all looking for that next longshot who could pay off. It doesn’t happen too often at The Open – Brian Harman’s win serving as the outlier – but hey, it could happen and that’s enough to allow any outright bettor to dream.

Full disclosure: Puig and McKibbin weren’t my first choices in this category. Actually, they weren’t even in the original picture. I thought about Adam Scott (+12500), whose coulda/shoulda/woulda back in 2012, when he bogeyed the final four holes to lose by one, could be considered in some respects a bigger choke job than that of Jean Van de Velde.

I considered Jason Day (+15000), who owns a nice record here, but rarely contends anymore and is always one little tweak away from a mid-tourney WD. I wrote 494 words on why I didn’t think Sepp Straka (+15000) would win, but that he at least could win, before scrapping the entire section because even I couldn’t believe that notion based on his recent poor form.

Jordan Smith (+17500)? Meh. Lucas Herbert (+20000)? More meh. Bernd Wiesberger (+30000)? Tons of meh. The reality is, everyone with a big number next to their name has it there because they deserve it – either they’ve never shown a propensity for contending at The Open or they haven’t played well lately or they own such low win equity that there’s no reason to believe they’ll win.

So, how did I wind up on a pair of LIV Golf-regular twenty-somethings who similarly have plenty of question marks? It wasn’t an easy discovery, but it does have a simple explanation: I’d rather bank on a few talented players who haven’t yet had the opportunities to prove they can’t win a major than those who have had a number of chances and haven’t gotten it done.

That might not be the smartest strategy and I’ll readily admit that any of the names mentioned above can play better this week than Puig or McKibbin – and the most likely scenario is that there won’t be a triple-digit option holding the Claret Jug this Sunday evening anyway – but I felt like they at least offered some hope, which is really all we want from an outright longshot.

Puig, 24, finished T-18 at the PGA Championship two months ago, his best career result in seven majors so far, and owns a prominent driver/putter combo which might not fit exactly what we’re seeking at Royal Birkdale, but are at least a couple of solid assets. McKibbin, 23, appears to be a better ball-striker at this stage of his career, but his putting stats are pretty horrid and have been that way for a while.

That’s emblematic of what we’ll find in this range, though – players who own enough faults to leave them with triple-digit prices. You know, the Catch-22. One last thing to keep in mind here, as I often write in these weekly previews: If we’re playing a longshot in the outright market, the only thing that matters is the ability to win; everything else is a dead ticket.

Do I think either Puig or McKibbin is going to win this week? No, of course not. Do I think they can win this week? Well, the jury is still out – and in comparison with so many others at these prices, that gives us at least a sliver of hope.

Open Championship Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rory McIlroy (+170)

Late in the midst of a final-round 64 on Sunday, the back-to-back Masters champion pulled a 6-iron left of the 16th green and immediately proclaimed to himself, if not everyone else eavesdropping through the nearby mics, “I am so bad at golf.” Well, if he’s bad, then almost everyone else on this planet who’s attempted to swing a club must be downright awful, which is depressing for all of us.

The truth is, McIlroy was only bad for one round last week – a third-round 3-over 73 which essentially kept him from potentially winning the Genesis Scottish Open once again. The other three rounds, at a collective 15-under-par, again proved that his good – maybe not his best, but just his good – is very special indeed and should have him optimistic for a second victory at The Open, a dozen years after his first.

In the time since, he’s posted six results of seventh or better in nine starts, suggesting he owns perhaps the highest floor in this field. The ceiling, of course, is where Rory is more concerned, as this stage in his career no longer has him chasing consolation prizes. I have a tough time backing him at +800 this week, just one point longer than Scottie Scheffler at the time of this writing, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see them as co-favorites by the time Thursday morning rolls around.

I have a tougher time, though, thinking he won’t be lurking on the leaderboard during this Sunday’s back-nine at Royal Birkdale, where he finished in a share of fourth place back in 2017. Even though he left the Renaissance Club telling CBS, “I know I need to do a bit of work between now and next Thursday to feel really comfortable with my game,” it feels like McIlroy is ready to contend once again and I’m willing to pay for the top-five, even if the outright price remains too short for the time being.

Aggressive Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (+300)

I get it: You probably looked at this one and thought there’s no way Fitzpatrick should be considered an “aggressive” top-five selection, but I’d counter with the idea that if he owns a longer number than the aggressive play, well, it’s my preview and I can put him here. Just kidding, folks, but the serious part is that the older Fitz brother has been about as good as anybody this year, from both a results-based and performance-based perspective.

In fact, with a T-3 finish last week, Fitzpatrick now has seven top-fives this season. If you still feel like this is too conservative for your liking in this market, perhaps a top-five parlay with McIlroy might make some sense. Either way, I see him recreating something in the neighborhood of last year’s T-4 at Royal Portrush.

Open Championship Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Joaquin Niemann (+400)

I was this close to listing Niemann as my favorite aggressive play at 50/1 in the outright market, but I just couldn’t get over the idea that a player with a fairly decent sample size has displayed absolutely no form at this specific tournament in the past. In a half-dozen starts at The Open, Niemann has only made the cut three times and never finished better than T-53. That’s more than a little concerning.

So, why am I considering him here at all? Because some other factors are too relevant to ignore. First, he’s sustained four months of high-level golf – and while I know some will be quick to point out that results can be excessively inflated when competing against LIV Golf fields, it’s impossible to ignore his tee-to-green performance, which has largely been through the roof for a while now.

And second, it wasn’t just Niemann’s record at The Open which has been poor; he’d never played well at any of the majors. After failing to post a single top-10 in his first 23 appearances, he’s now had top-10s in two of the last five, which at least proves he’s starting to get the hang of ‘em. Just last month, he drew international headlines for a two-stroke misconduct penalty at the U.S. Open, but also posted rounds of 65 and 66, ultimately finishing in a share of seventh place.

I’m not going to suggest that your support or fade of Niemann this week is some personal referendum into how much value you place on a player’s history at similar venues, however those on #TeamRecentForm will likely see this as a much more palatable play than others. I’m admittedly a bit stuck in the middle, leaving me in the market for finishing position wagers over an outright, though I could be convinced that he has the proper traits to take the Claret Jug this week.

Aggressive Pick: Aaron Rai (+550)

When a non-superstar wins a major for the first time, things usually go one of two ways for him in the short-term aftermath. The first is that he struggles almost immediately in subsequent majors. Maybe he enjoys the spoils a little too much; maybe he finds it difficult to traverse the mental side of reaching a career apex and having to keep climbing.

The second, though, is a more positive spin. Buoyed with the proof that he can beat the world’s best players in one of the biggest tournaments, the proverbial floodgates might not open, but the newly crowned major champion starts competing with increased confidence at these events and posting more top results.

Based on everything we know about Rai, I’m firmly entrenched in the idea that the former will come true for him – and maybe it already has, as he posted a share of 11th place at the U.S. Open, which ranks as his best major finish besides that PGA Championship victory.

With streaks of eight straight events posting positive strokes gained numbers both off the tee and approach going into last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, Rai is clearly reaching new levels in his game over the past few months and should bring plenty of that aforementioned confidence with him to Royal Birkdale. Another title contention shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Open Championship Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Picks: Chris Gotterup (+130) and Wyndham Clark (+150)

On the “Early Wedge” show, which I’m fortunate enough to be a part of each week with my friends Eric Cohen, Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald through CBS Sports, we usually spend an hour or so hashing through our favorite plays for the given week before closing with a “Best Bets” segment during which we make one final selection.

Now, I’d like to think that we offer our best efforts on every pick, but the way I’ve interpreted this final segment is that I think about it in terms of one of my buddies coming up to me and saying, “I need a winning bet this week – no, like I reallllly need a winner, because money is, uh, a little tight right now.” In other words, I’ve taken the “conservative” idea from my weekly preview and cranked it up another notch, trying to offer a bet which, I hope, isn’t even a little sweaty by week’s end.

Of course, there’s no such thing as a guarantee in betting – especially in golf betting – so even the most conservative plays are subject to losses. All of which helps to explain, though, why I’m listing a pair of the world’s hottest players right now – and a couple of guys who will be on plenty of outright cards – as my top-20s here.

Yes, I realize this is overly cautious and yes, I realize that even overly cautious plays can turn out to be losers, but if you really need the money and/or you don’t mind playing some shorter numbers in this market, I’m not exactly telling you anything you don’t know in suggesting that Gotterup and Clark should once again find themselves somewhere on the first two pages of this leaderboard.

Aggressive Pick: Alex Noren (+400)

My initial idea was to go with Genesis Scottish Open winner Tom Kim in this spot, but while I do believe he could follow Gotterup’s lead and parlay that victory into a top-five kind of performance at The Open, things were getting a little too chalky around here, so I decided to officially go with Noren instead. This is very much a play on history over form, because his game, which was seemingly in a very good place for much of this season, has gone in the tank recently.

After 10 finishes of 32nd or better in 11 starts from mid-February through early-June, he’s now missed the cut in three of his last four with a T-55 in the lone no-cut event during that span. In his career at The Open, though, he’s posted top-20 results in half of his dozen appearances, so I’m banking on a return to true links being beneficial to another solid performance at this one. Or, you know, just stick with the Kim play – no matter how chalky it feels.

Open Championship Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Rickie Fowler (market not yet available)

When prognosticating The Open each year, we collectively tend to favor the European players who are playing on “home soil” at this event. That’s obviously a sweeping generalization and the better way to explain this is that we simply rate them a tad higher than we might at a U.S.-based event. It makes some sense or else we wouldn’t keep doing it, but we should also remember that Americans have won each of the last three editions of this tournament, six of the last 10 and 14 of 25 this century.

That proves players from the U.S. can win this one, but it doesn’t necessarily show that any of them have a better chance here than at the other three majors in their home country – of the four American winners in the last five years, only Harman doesn’t also have a major title in the U.S. I’ve always believed, though, that Fowler is different – he might very well be the rare American player who has a better chance of winning or contending at The Open than the other three.

This has a lot to do with his propensity for creativity on the golf course, flighting shots lower than most others, which tends to be an important asset in windy conditions. And it’s shown, as Rickie has made the cut in his last 10 starts at The Open, which includes seven finishes inside the top-40 and many of them well inside that line of demarcation to cash these tickets. No reason to believe it shouldn’t happen again – and if you really believe in him, I don’t dislike the idea of a ladder into the top-20, top-10 and maybe even top-five markets this week.

Aggressive Pick: Stewart Cink (market not yet available)

I made this call at the PGA Championship two months ago and while he missed the cut at that one, I still think there’s value in having a little faith in the 53-year-old here. For a guy who’s still despised in some circles for beating 59-year-old Tom Watson in a playoff back in 2009, it would be ironic for an aging Cink to do some post-50 damage of his own this week.

Along with Zach Johnson, he’s one of the two best players on the PGA Tour Champions circuit and he’s shown a decent floor at a tournament which has never shown any signs of ageism over the years. Since 2015, Cink has finished between 20th and 24th four times at The Open and while the other five are all MCs, that still hints at an implied probability which is much better than his odds in this market.

Open Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Patrick Reed (+6000)

First-round leader plays often require a stroke of luck, but at The Open in recent years they’ve become something more akin to a dart throw. Three years ago, Christo Lamprecht was part of a three-way share as an amateur; two years ago, Dan Brown held that spot all by himself; and last year, Christiaan Bezuidenhout was part of an eclectic five-player tie. There’s little about Reed’s record at this event which would suggest he’s about to post a low one, but there’s similarly been little about many of the FRLers recently which would suggest that.

What I do like is that with his season largely on hold for the past several months and a sole focus on the majors, he opened with a 69 at the Masters and 68 at the PGA Championship, which hints that he’s gotten a solid start in the prep work needed at these majors. Coming off a T-13 last week, it’s very possible he keeps his foot attached to that gas pedal this Thursday.

Aggressive Pick: Gary Woodland (+10000)

It’s been a season to remember for Woodland, whose victory at the Texas Children’s Houston Open was his first since the 2019 U.S. Open, but he’s also had plenty of memorable Thursdays, with four openers of 66 or better, which doesn’t even include a 67 at the U.S. Open, which left him in a share of third place after the first day.

All told, he ranks 11th in Round 1 scoring average and while his lone sub-70 first round in a dozen starts at The Open was also his only top-25 a decade ago, I don’t hate the idea of simply sticking with a guy who’s been starting strong this year and seeing if he can reverse some of those past trends from this event.