U.S. Open Best Bets: Who to Target at Pinehurst

PINEHURST, N.C. – I’ve said it before and until he stops winning so much, I’ll keep on saying it: Scottie Scheffler is a golf betting buzzkill.

When he’s in the field these days, we’ve got a couple of options.

Bet him outright at a short number, which probably means not taking anyone else in that market, or fade him in hopes that he somehow doesn’t win again.

Entering this week’s U.S. Open, Scheffler is +333, a price which only supports the above notion. That of course doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the other non-outright markets this week.

If you don’t really want to back Scottie at such a short number but don’t really want to bet against him, here are some options in the finishing position markets. 

U.S. Open Top-5 Best Bets

• Xander Schauffele (+220)
• Collin Morikawa (+300)
• Max Homa (+650)

A quick caveat before we get too far: By no means are the selections listed throughout this piece all gotta-bet-‘em recommendations. Sorry to burst your bubble, but I’m probably not going 100% on these plays. The purpose of this exercise is instead to get you thinking about a handful of players for each wager.

If you’d simply bet Schauffele for top-fives at every major championship, you would already have seven cashed tickets – all of them at a bigger number than this one.

Morikawa similarly makes a ton of sense after his runner-up finish at the Memorial Tournament and Homa has started to figure out the majors a little bit. 

U.S. Open Top-10 Best Bets

• Matt Fitzpatrick (+320)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+320)
• Tom Kim (+500)
• Sepp Straka (+600)
• J.T. Poston (+1200)

In the past few years, there’s been an Austin Eckroat here or a Guido Migliozzi there, but most of the players who have posted top-10 results at a U.S. Open are established pros.

I’ll keep with that theme here, mixing a few top-10 stalwarts with some players who are trending in the right direction. I’d love to offer up some more aggressive prices in this market, but recent results show those further down the board rarely pay off at this event.

U.S. Open Top-20 Best Bets

• Cameron Smith (+150)
• Corey Conners (+250)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+300)
• Alex Noren (+320)
• Billy Horschel (+400)
• Ryan Fox (+450)
• Akshay Bhatia (+450)
• Nick Dunlap (+550)

Once again, I’m simply offering up suggestions for this range, rather than imploring you to choose all eight of these players for top-20s.

Following that previous theme, I’m looking at players here who have all had some modicum of success this year, whether that means a win, flashes of brilliance or long-standing consistency.

U.S. Open To Make Cut Best Bets

• Phil Mickelson (+200)
• Tiger Woods (+225)

That’s right, I’m going there.

Here’s my thought on Tiger: He’ll never have better conditions for a major, as he’s playing a (mostly) flat golf course in hot weather. Unlike, say, a PGA Championship which requires players to go low in order to contend, Woods can use his ball-striking and creativity to grind out pars and stay above the cut line at this one.

And on Phil: He gets criticized for never having won a U.S. Open title, but I’d make the point that his half-dozen career runner-up finishes actually suggest he’s been great at this event – just not great enough to beat one player each of those times. He’s largely been an afterthought at majors recently, but I do believe his craftiness can help him to the weekend at this one.