- Man City is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Man City has won either half in 15 straight EPL matches at Etihad Stadium.
- My Man City vs Brentford prediction is the Manchester City 1H Moneyline (-145).
Manchester City will try to bounce back on short rest as home favorites against Brentford.
City dropped points on Monday at Everton. Despite taking a 1-0 advantage at halftime, City drew 3-3, falling five points behind Arsenal in the title race.
Brentford cruised to a 3-0 win against West Ham on Saturday. The win ended a six-match winless run for Keith Andrews’ side, which sits seventh in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Brentford prediction.
Man City vs Brentford: Premier League Odds
Brentford vs Man City Prediction
Based on Manchester City’s strong metrics in the opening half and Brentford’s early struggles as a road underdog, my Man City vs. Brentford prediction is the Man City 1H Moneyline (-145).
Only two matches ago, Brentford traveled as a sizable road dog to Manchester United. Notable ahead of this trip to Manchester is how quickly the defense surrendered scoring chances.
United took a 2-0 lead before halftime, including a tally inside the first 15 minutes. The Red Devils generated 1.2 expected goals and 1.5 post-shot xG for the half, per FotMob.
Brentford struggled to create chances, too. The Bees amassed only 0.54 post-shot xG at United, a statistically inferior defense to their local rivals.
This season, City dominated early proceedings. Their defense has allowed only 12.6 expected goals inside the interval compared to 30.74 after halftime.
By expected goal differential, City posted a +22.95 expected goal differential in the first half. Comparatively, Pep Guardiola’s outfit recorded a +8.8 xGDiff after halftime.
Through 16 home matches, City gained a halftime lead 12 times. On the other hand, Brentford fell behind at halftime seven times in 17 away days.
Andrews’ side has generally struggled as a big underdog in a smaller sample size. Through four trips to Big Six teams, Brentford is 0-0-4 (W-D-L) in four road first halves.
When these sides met at the GTech Community Stadium, City took a quick lead. Despite sending out a rotated attack, the Cityzens earned a 1-0 halftime lead.
Metrics backed up the performance. Expected goals rated the first half a 0.82-0.06 City victory with a 2-0 big scoring chances advantage.
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