- Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- Spurs have lost four straight but dominated Burnley 5-2 in the reverse fixture.
- Bet this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s match.
If Tottenham are to have any hope of qualifying for the Champions League, they must capture all three points against Burnley on Saturday.
Tottenham have dropped all three points in four straight games, but they’ve faced a murderer’s row of competition: Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool.
As for Burnley, their three-match unbeaten run came to an end last Saturday against Newcastle in a 4-1 defeat at Turf Moor.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Burnley
- Tottenham Moneyline: -300
- Burnley Moneyline: +625
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 4.5 Goals (+120/-165)
Premier League Prediction – Tottenham vs. Burnley
Same Game Parlay: Tottenham Moneyline & Tottenham Over 6.5 Shots on Target (-110)
Spurs won the reverse fixture 5-2 and it’s difficult to foresee a different outcome on Saturday in North London.
For all of their issues this season, manager Ange Postecoglou’s side has played very well as home favorites.
Sample 10 home games against sides 11th or worse in the current Premier League table and bettors will find Tottenham are 9-1 SU, including three straight wins.
Conversely, Burnley have struggled to pick up results on the road against good teams. In road contests against sides sixth or better, the Clarets are 0-5 SU.
Plus, Spurs bossed the underlying metrics in the previous head-to-head meeting.
Tottenham won on expected goals battle 2.28 to 1.36 and the post-shot expected goals battle 4.65 to 2.27, per fotmob.com.
In that match, Spurs attempted 21 shots and put 11 on target.
That makes the crux of this play Tottenham over 6.5 shots on target.
Right now, Burnley can’t stop anyone from hitting the target
Their last four opponents — Newcastle United, Manchester United, Sheffield United and Brighton — have all cleared this number with three notching at least 10.
The big concern? Only one of those teams ranks ahead of Tottenham in shots on target per 90 minutes this season.
Sample Burnley’s 13 matches this season against sides averaging at least five shots on target per 90 and bettors will find the opponent has cleared this number eight times.
Given five straight of those opponents have notched at least six with four clearing 6.5, I’ll back Tottenham to continue exploiting a bad defense.
Tottenham Form
May 5 at Liverpool: 2-4, L
May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L
April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, W
April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L
April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W
Burnley Form
May 4 vs. Newcastle United: 1-4, L
April 27 at Manchester United: 1-1, D
April 20 at Sheffield United: 4-1, W
April 13 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
April 6 at Everton: 0-1, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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