Tottenham vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

min read
Tottenham's Richarlison in action during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 10, 2024, 2:03 PM
  • Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • Spurs have lost four straight but dominated Burnley 5-2 in the reverse fixture.
  • Bet this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s match.

If Tottenham are to have any hope of qualifying for the Champions League, they must capture all three points against Burnley on Saturday.

Tottenham have dropped all three points in four straight games, but they’ve faced a murderer’s row of competition: Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. 

As for Burnley, their three-match unbeaten run came to an end last Saturday against Newcastle in a 4-1 defeat at Turf Moor. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Burnley

  • Tottenham Moneyline: -300
  • Burnley Moneyline: +625
  • Draw Moneyline: +500
  • Over/Under: 4.5 Goals (+120/-165)

Premier League Prediction – Tottenham vs. Burnley

Same Game Parlay: Tottenham Moneyline & Tottenham Over 6.5 Shots on Target (-110)

Spurs won the reverse fixture 5-2 and it’s difficult to foresee a different outcome on Saturday in North London. 

For all of their issues this season, manager Ange Postecoglou’s side has played very well as home favorites. 

Sample 10 home games against sides 11th or worse in the current Premier League table and bettors will find Tottenham are 9-1 SU, including three straight wins. 

Conversely, Burnley have struggled to pick up results on the road against good teams. In road contests against sides sixth or better, the Clarets are 0-5 SU. 

Plus, Spurs bossed the underlying metrics in the previous head-to-head meeting. 

Tottenham won on expected goals battle 2.28 to 1.36 and the post-shot expected goals battle 4.65 to 2.27, per 

In that match, Spurs attempted 21 shots and put 11 on target. 

That makes the crux of this play Tottenham over 6.5 shots on target. 

Right now, Burnley can’t stop anyone from hitting the target

Their last four opponents — Newcastle United, Manchester United, Sheffield United and Brighton — have all cleared this number with three notching at least 10. 

The big concern? Only one of those teams ranks ahead of Tottenham in shots on target per 90 minutes this season. 

Sample Burnley’s 13 matches this season against sides averaging at least five shots on target per 90 and bettors will find the opponent has cleared this number eight times. 

Given five straight of those opponents have notched at least six with four clearing 6.5, I’ll back Tottenham to continue exploiting a bad defense. 

Tottenham Form 

May 5 at Liverpool: 2-4, L

May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L

April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, W

April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

Burnley Form

May 4 vs. Newcastle United: 1-4, L

April 27 at Manchester United: 1-1, D

April 20 at Sheffield United: 4-1, W

April 13 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D

April 6 at Everton: 0-1, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.

You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.