- Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Palace is unbeaten in five and beat Wolves 3-2 in the reverse fixture at home.
- Why bettors should continue to buy high on Crystal Palace.
As they seek an extension for their five-match unbeaten run, Crystal Palace travel to face Wolves on Saturday.
Since losing 4-2 at home to Manchester City, manager Oliver Glasner’s side has gone on to win four of their last five with a road draw at Fulham sandwiched in between their last two wins.
As for Wolves, they’ve struggled to earn points in their last few games. Manager Gary O’Neil’s side has only one win in four and two results in five.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Crystal Palace vs. Wolves
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +145
- Wolves Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
Premier League Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. Wolves
Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (-135)
This line makes absolutely no sense to me.
Palace are far and away the team in better form and thoroughly dominated Wolves when these sides last met.
In a September fixture at Selhurst Park, Palace won 3-2 and won the post-shot expected goals battle 3.88 to 0.73, according to fotmob.com.
Plus, although they took place at opposite venues, these teams have a recent common opponent.
Palace, at home against Manchester City, posted a -0.83 non-penalty expected goal differential. Worth noting, however, is that Michael Olise only played 15 minutes and change in that game.
Meanwhile, Wolves traveled to Manchester City last weekend and posted a -1.81 npxGDiff, per fotmob.com.
Even if you adjust for home field and the fact Wolves could return talisman Pedro Neto for Saturday’s fixture, I still don’t think there’s this small a gap between these teams.
Plus, Wolves would make history if they win this match. Since 2012-13, underdogs off a loss by three or more goals facing a team that won their last match by three or more are 0-44 SU.
Additionally, there’s another system suggesting the likeliest outcome is a Crystal Palace win.
Since the 2021-22 season, road favorites that closed a favorite in their last game that won by at least two goals AND won the last head-to-head meeting are 54-24 SU.
This season, those teams are 23-10 SU.
And yet, bettors are getting push protection on a draw here, which makes me love this bet that much more.
Finally, there’s a bit of betting calculus I’m applying to this handicap.
Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals both have heavy juice (-165 and -140, respectively).
However, both team totals are juiced to under 1.5 goals. Historically, favorites do well under those circumstances, so I’ll take the visitors to do no worse than a point.
Crystal Palace Form
May 6 vs. Manchester United: 4-0, W
April 27 at Fulham: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W\
April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W
April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W
Wolves Form
May 4 at Manchester City: 1-5, L
April 27 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W
April 24 vs. Bournemouth: 0-1, L
April 20 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
April 13 at Nottingham Forest: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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