Crystal Palace vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

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Crystal Palace players celebrate after Crystal Palace's Michael Olise, centre, scored his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Crystal Palace at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Dec.16, 2023.
(AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 10, 2024, 2:02 PM
  • Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Palace is unbeaten in five and beat Wolves 3-2 in the reverse fixture at home.
  • Why bettors should continue to buy high on Crystal Palace.

As they seek an extension for their five-match unbeaten run, Crystal Palace travel to face Wolves on Saturday. 

Since losing 4-2 at home to Manchester City, manager Oliver Glasner’s side has gone on to win four of their last five with a road draw at Fulham sandwiched in between their last two wins. 

As for Wolves, they’ve struggled to earn points in their last few games. Manager Gary O’Neil’s side has only one win in four and two results in five. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Crystal Palace vs. Wolves

  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +145
  • Wolves Moneyline: +175
  • Draw Moneyline: +250
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)

Premier League Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. Wolves

Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (-135) 

This line makes absolutely no sense to me. 

Palace are far and away the team in better form and thoroughly dominated Wolves when these sides last met. 

In a September fixture at Selhurst Park, Palace won 3-2 and won the post-shot expected goals battle 3.88 to 0.73, according to 

Plus, although they took place at opposite venues, these teams have a recent common opponent. 

Palace, at home against Manchester City, posted a -0.83 non-penalty expected goal differential. Worth noting, however, is that Michael Olise only played 15 minutes and change in that game. 

Meanwhile, Wolves traveled to Manchester City last weekend and posted a -1.81 npxGDiff, per 

Even if you adjust for home field and the fact Wolves could return talisman Pedro Neto for Saturday’s fixture, I still don’t think there’s this small a gap between these teams. 

Plus, Wolves would make history if they win this match. Since 2012-13, underdogs off a loss by three or more goals facing a team that won their last match by three or more are 0-44 SU. 

Additionally, there’s another system suggesting the likeliest outcome is a Crystal Palace win. 

Since the 2021-22 season, road favorites that closed a favorite in their last game that won by at least two goals AND won the last head-to-head meeting are 54-24 SU. 

This season, those teams are 23-10 SU. 

And yet, bettors are getting push protection on a draw here, which makes me love this bet that much more. 

Finally, there’s a bit of betting calculus I’m applying to this handicap. 

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals both have heavy juice (-165 and -140, respectively). 

However, both team totals are juiced to under 1.5 goals. Historically, favorites do well under those circumstances, so I’ll take the visitors to do no worse than a point. 

Crystal Palace Form 

May 6 vs. Manchester United: 4-0, W

April 27 at Fulham: 1-1, D

April 24 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W\

April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W

April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W

Wolves Form

May 4 at Manchester City: 1-5, L

April 27 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

April 24 vs. Bournemouth: 0-1, L

April 20 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L

April 13 at Nottingham Forest: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.