College Football Expert Picks: Week 6 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

What’s up with some of these college football lines?

That’s the question I’m asking myself as I peruse this week’s offerings. Some of these point spreads jump out as surprisingly light.

In my experience, when a line is fishy, you lean into that fishiness. Reactionary assumptions about who should win by margin usually don’t stand up to the wisdom and efficiency of the market. 

Keep that in the back of your mind as you navigate some of my favorite games of the week, detailed below. And don’t forget to circle back on my early Week 6 bets, which I posted on Monday.

Missouri vs. Texas A&M Prediction

Missouri is 4-1 and coming off last week’s drubbing of the Florida Gators. Texas A&M’s only FBS wins this year are Arizona State and Arkansas. This game is Columbia.

Why is it Missouri -3.5? Why not 6.5?

It’s often futile to try to “solve” a mysterious number, but you clicked on the article, so let me give it a shot. 

Marcel Reed can’t keep being as bad as he was in September, and his highest QBR of the season against Arkansas last week.

Mike Elko is 2-0 against Eli Drinkwitz since becoming the head coach of Texas A&M, winning by an average margin of 26 points. 

Missouri is going to struggle to run the ball and is already 64th in offensive success rate as it is. 

My angle on the game is to take the short number with A&M, but I might have talked myself into an under, too. 

Prediction: Texas A&M +3.5; Lean Under 48.5

Pitt vs. North Carolina Prediction

Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Heintschel is going to miss the remainder of the 2026 season with an ACL tear in his right knee. That means the Panthers are turning to Holden Geriner to run the offense, which explains why Pitt is -3.5 and not -9.5.

Geriner is a fifth-year senior, but he’s never played real minutes in college football. Against a North Carolina defensive front that’s actually quite good, this will be a heck of an orientation. 

I like the points and the moneyline with the Heels. 

Prediction: North Carolina +3.5; North Carolina +145

LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction

What do we actually know about LSU this year? Wins against Clemson, Louisiana Tech, and McNeese don’t tell us much. They’re 1-1 in SEC games.

Is that enough to be a multi-possession road favorite against a decent Kentucky team?

For all the praise about Lane Kiffin’s offense, it’s actually the LSU defense that appears to be the strength of the team. LSU is third nationally in defensive success rate and No. 1 in EPA/pass allowed. Blake Baker is still one of the best defensive coordinators in college football.

But the offense is pretty mediocre, which is one reason the Tigers stalled out so badly in the first half of the game at Oxford. This is only their second road game of the season, and you can expect Kentucky fans to make Lexington an obnoxious environment.

I think this game will be low-scoring and competitive, so 8.5 points will be pretty valuable. This is another dog play.

Prediction: Kentucky +8.5

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction

I think bettors are playing the muscle memory here and not the game in front of them.

This total is 51.5, which suggests a kind of relatively defensive struggle that will end with a final score of something like 27-23. 

But it’s more helpful to think of this as a mid-2010s Big 12 game. Both of these teams have Heisman-aspiring quarterbacks and top 20 success rates, and top 15 scores for EPA/play. 

Alabama has scored 45 points in every game this season. Georgia has scored 38 in every game this season.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a first-half under as both coaches play conservatively and try to feel the other team out. But in the end, the offense is going to dictate this game. I like the over, and I would consider selling points and going after alt numbers in the total market, too.

Prediction: Over 51.5

Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction

Fresno State is a team I have written a lot about this cycle, and so I don’t want to regurgitate every last bit of that here.

The TLDR version is that former North Dakota State coach Matt Entz is building a West Coast Fargo. The Bulldogs play very good defense and run the ball behind a good offensive line. 

From a metrics standpoint, this is not necessarily a great run game – 107th in EPA/rush – but the ground pressure builds and builds as the game unfolds. By the time the fourth quarter arrives, the H-back power runs can be pretty destructive.

Is Fresno good enough to dethrone the current G6 playoff favorite? Not if you’ve only watched Boise and Fresno in their respective Big Ten games earlier this year. Boise played Oregon close, while USC built an early lead that Fresno’s power game couldn’t climb out of.

I am expecting a close game. If it falls Fresno’s way, it will reshape the balance of power both in the Pac-12 and the G6 as a whole. Either way, the points will be valuable in a close contest. 

Prediction: Fresno State +6.5

College Football Week 6 Best Bets

• Texas A&M +3.5
• North Carolina +3.5
• Kentucky +8.5
• Alabama/Georgia Over 51.5
• Fresno State +6.5