2 Best NFL Player Props for MNF: Saints vs Falcons

Saints vs Falcons will close out the Week 4 slate with a battle for the top spot in the division.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Saints vs Falcons Predictions: MNF Player Props

Devaughn Vele Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

For as strong as Atlanta looked on offense last week, the corner group remains highly concerning. Until A.J. Terrell returns, this is a group I predict will surrender yards.

In Week 2, the Falcons allowed over 100 yards to Tetairoa McMillan. But Jalen Coker added eight receptions on nine targets for 66 yards.

A similar story played out in Week 3. Christian Watson cleared 100 against the Falcons with teammate Matthew Golden pulling in five receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Through three games, Atlanta ranks 28th in DVOA against WR2s. On average, the defense allowed 8.3 receptions (31st) and 86 yards (32nd) against the group.

Vele stayed under this benchmark by only five yards against the Raiders. However, he still received six targets from Tyler Shough, catching three.

The matchup qualifies as a step down for Vele, who cleared 60 yards against both Detroit and Baltimore.

With Travis Etienne sidelined through injury, I expect New Orleans to emphasize the passing attack even more. Accordingly, I predict Vele clears a relatively low number.

Tyler Shough Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)

In a similar vein to the Vele prop, my confidence in Shough stems from his performances against bad secondaries.

Albeit in garbage time, he blitzed the Lions secondary for three touchdowns in Week 1. Last week against the Raiders, the second-year quarterback tossed four touchdown passes.

Only one spot separates the Raiders and Falcons in defensive DVOA. Cumulatively, the Falcons possess a worse pass defense, which sits 13th in pass defense DVOA.

Even before Etienne’s injury, New Orleans relied on Shough to finish drives that reached the red zone. From inside the 20-yard line, Shough attempted 19 passes through three games.

Comparatively, Saints rushers attempted only nine carries. Shrink the sample to consider plays from inside the 10-yard line, and Shough still owns an 11-5 attempt advantage.

On Monday, he gets a defense that has struggled to limit passing touchdowns. Bryce Young tossed three touchdown passes in Week 2 before Jordan Love threw two in Week 3.

It leads me to predict that, even at a high price, Shough clears this line for a second straight game.