2 NFL Player Props for MNF: Seahawks vs Texans

The second game of Week 7’s MNF doubleheader features Seahawks vs Texans in Seattle. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Seahawks vs Texans Prediction: Player Props

Nick Chubb Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

The line itself offers an initial hint for Seattle’s defensive quality against the run. 

Chubb has cleared this number in all but one game this season. The issue? He accomplished it without playing many good run defenses. 

Seattle, which ranks second in rush defense DVOA, offers the toughest test for Chubb. Previously, he rushed for 43 yards against Tampa Bay, but for only 3.6 yards per attempt. 

For reference, Seattle ranks four spots ahead of Tampa in rush defense DVOA. The team also sits fifth in run-stop win rate, while Houston ranks 28th in the corresponding offensive metric. 

Seattle last allowed over 100 rushing yards in Week 1. Additionally, bettors have data to consider off their record against good run offenses. 

Last week, Seattle held Travis Etienne to only 27 yards. Only one team (Cleveland) tops Seattle in rush yards per attempt. 

Pair that with a likely negative game script for Houston, and I predict Chubb stays under this figure for the second time this year. 

Tory Horton Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Save for matchups with Cam Ward and Cooper Rush, Houston’s defense has played some tough quarterbacks so far. 

Their first three games came against Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence. All three lead offenses 16th or better in pass offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

In the face of those tests, Houston still ranks third in pass defense DVOA. While that includes all five games, it remains a team that ranked seventh in dropback EPA per play from Week 1-3. 

Houston deploys a zone-heavy coverage scheme. Per PFF, defensive coordinator Matt Burke schemes that coverage at the league’s fourth-highest rate (79.3%). 

Horton has struggled to earn target share against zone this season. On 73 routes, he caught only six balls for 70 yards with a 13.7% target share. 

His matchup with Houston offers a similar test to Week 6 against Jacksonville. The Jags run zone at the league’s sixth-highest rate. 

In that game, Horton failed to record a reception. It’s also a Seattle team that hasn’t faced many good pass defenses. 

Monday’s game marks the first time all year Seattle plays a defense 10th or better in DVOA. Accordingly, I predict Horton stays under a low figure for the second straight game. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Seahawks vs Texans