2 NFL Player Props for Week 9: Commanders vs Seahawks

Seattle aims to stay atop the NFC West on SNF in Commanders vs Seahawks at Northwest Stadium.  

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Commanders vs Seahawks Prediction: Player Props

Cooper Kupp Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

One of the biggest edges for Seattle’s offense, based on past performances, comes via the passing game. 

Seattle ranks second in pass offense DVOA, while Washington ranks 19th in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Washington deploys a healthy dose of man-to-man coverage, which benefits Kupp. Through eight games, Joe Whitt’s defense plays man at a 29% clip, the 10th-highest in the league. 

Kupp trails teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba by a healthy margin in yards against zone coverage. However, the duo has produced similar results against man. 

Smith-Njigba recorded 194 yards vs. man coverage. Kupp sits second amongst Seattle wide receivers at 116 yards vs. the scheme. 

Kupp also gets an extremely beneficial matchup against Washington corner Mike Sainristil. Sainristil serves as Washington’s primary slot defender and surrenders yards at a high rate. 

To date, Sainristil has allowed 30 receptions and 330 yards in slot coverage. Both rank amongst the three worst outputs by slot corners in the NFL. 

That should offer Kupp a chance to clear this threshold for the fourth time this season. 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

As outlined in my game prediction, I’m expecting a negative game script for the Commanders. 

Even with Jayden Daniels returning, Washington faces a brutally tough Seahawks rush defense. Only the Browns (-32.7%) outpace the Seahawks (-31.5%) in rush defense DVOA. 

Game script plays a big role, but Croskey-Merritt has struggled to clear this number recently. Against Dallas and Kansas City, he failed to crack 40 yards. 

That ended a streak of three successes against this benchmark. Most of those achievements came against bad run defenses. 

His 61-yard performance at Chicago came against a team 26th in rush defense DVOA. Before that contest, Croskey-Merritt rushed for 111 yards against the Chargers (27th). 

In fact, the rookie back has seen little action against good run defenses. 

Last week’s game against Kansas City marked his second appearance against a team ranked 10th or better in rush defense DVOA. 

In the two prior games – at Kansas City, at Green Bay – Croskey-Merritt rushed for 25 and 17 yards, respectively. 

With Seattle rated out as his toughest test this season, I predict the Commanders back finishes under this benchmark. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Commanders vs Seahawks