2 Best NFL Player Props for Week 17: Commanders vs Cowboys

Dallas will go for a season sweep of Washington in Commanders vs Cowboys on Christmas. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the NFC East  matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction: Week 17 Player Props

CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions (-135)

Lamb stayed under this benchmark by the hook when these teams last met. However, he led the Cowboys with eight targets in that game. 

A key difference exists for this meeting: Commanders corner Marshon Lattimore won’t play. Without him, Washington has struggled to defend top wide receivers. 

Lattimore exited midway through a home game against Seattle. Jaxon Smith-Njigba notched eight receptions in that contest. 

Last week, the Commanders allowed A.J. Brown to dominate. He notched nine catches on 12 targets for 95 yards against Washington, in spite of a perpetual positive game script. 

Rashee Rice also notched nine receptions for 93 yards against Washington. 

Those three games, along with the aforementioned Dallas game, qualify as the only contests against top-11 pass offense DVOA units, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Lamb is 8-4 to the over against this benchmark this season. Only twice all season has he amassed four or fewer receptions. 

Pair those with Washington’s concerns at corner, and I predict Lamb clears this number for the ninth game. 

Deebo Samuel Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards (-125)

Is placing faith in Josh Johnson slightly scary? Undoubtedly. 

But the Cowboys secondary is not good. Additionally, Johnson showed some decent glimpses against the Eagles. 

One of Johnson’s five completions went to Samuel for 20 yards. By that point, Washington was out of the game, and the Eagles were letting them move the ball. 

It’s not that far-fetched to think the Cowboys offense could achieve a similar margin, given how bad Washington’s defense has played against good offenses. 

Samuel didn’t play in the first game at Dallas. However, he has shown good signs against similar coverage schemes. 

Dallas plays the 14th-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. 

Samuel ranks second amongst Washington skill players with 359 yards against zone coverage. His 51 targets against that scheme leads the team. 

First and second in those categories is tight end Zach Ertz, who is done for the year. His 44 targets and 382 yards against zone have to go somewhere. 

Even if you look at Dallas’ record against bad quarterbacks, the defense has allowed long completions. 

J.J. McCarthy notched a 58-yard bomb at Dallas. Geno Smith added a 29-yard longest attempt. Justin Fields launched a 25-yard completion as well. 

Given those factors, I predict Samuel clears this benchmark for the second straight game.