- The Commanders are predicted to be an 8.5-point home underdog against the Cowboys.
- The underdogs have won four of the Cowboys' last five games.
- If Josh Johnson starts, my Commanders vs Cowboys prediction is the Cowboys Spread (-5.5).
A meaningless NFC East clash opens the Christmas Day NFL slate with Washington hosting Dallas.Â
Thursday’s game marks the second straight divisional contest for the Commanders. Dan Quinn’s team fell 29-18 against the Eagles last Saturday, the team’s third loss in four games.Â
Dallas closed as a short home favorite against the Chargers on Sunday. However, a 34-17 loss resigned the Cowboys to a third straight defeat and ATS failure.Â
Bet on Commanders vs. Cowboys and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Commanders vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 17 Odds
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
If Josh Johnson starts for the Commanders on Thursday, my Commanders vs Cowboys prediction is the Dallas Cowboys Spread (-5.5, -110).Â
The game is completely meaningless, so the range of potential outcomes is wide. Accordingly, any prediction comes with minimal confidence attached.Â
For Dallas, any ability to cover comes down to the defense playing better. The team has allowed 28 points in four straight, including 30+ in three straight.Â
But look at the quarterbacks on the other side: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, J.J. McCarthy (?) and Justin Herbert.Â
If Josh Johnson starts for Washington, I question if the Commanders can keep pace offensively.Â
That assumes the Cowboys are interested offensively. Is showing your old defensive coordinator how good you are enough motivation? Maybe, but I wouldn’t be surprised if not.Â
If you’re a trends bettor, a trend indicates the Cowboys should be considered. Since 2019, road favorites between -2.5 and -7 are 41-13 ATS, assuming three factors:
- The favorite closed as a market favorite in its last game
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -3 and -35
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -11 and +21
Only four of those matches come with four days between games. Those teams are 4-0 ATS.Â
Additionally, Dak Prescott is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite within the division. He’s also getting a Commanders defense that allowed 44 points to Dallas earlier this year.
Given those factors, it’s the Cowboys or pass for me on Thursday.Â
Betting Commanders vs. Cowboys: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys (-8.5) | 73% | 89% |
| Commanders (+8.5) | 27% | 11% |
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