2 Best NFL Player Props for Wild Card SNF: Patriots vs Chargers

Patriots vs Chargers closes out Sunday’s wild-card action as Drake Maye seeks his first playoff win. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Patriots vs Chargers Prediction: SNF Player Props

Ladd McConkey Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In general, I lack trust in the Patriots passing defense. That’s because, as a team, they’ve played the easiest set of opposing offenses. 

New England’s +7.9% pass defense DVOA percentage falls to +16% after accounting for opponent adjustments. The latter figure ranks 25th in the league. 

McConkey last played in Week 17 against the Texans. Houston possesses the league’s second-best pass defense by DVOA, along with one of the best slot corners (Jalen Pitre). 

Marcus Jones lacks similar limitation abilities. He also plays primarily in the slot in a man-heavy coverage defense. 

McConkey leads all Chargers pass catchers in both target share and yards against man this season. 

He faced three games against top-10 man coverage defenses all year. He averaged 6.33 targets in those games and cleared this number twice. 

That included a 107-yard breakout against the Steelers and a 4-47 line against Denver. 

Irrespective of opponent, McConkey cleared this benchmark eight times in 16 games, reaching 41 nine times. Given those factors, I predict he clears a low number against a suspect defense. 

Justin Herbert Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-105)

Since losing Joe Alt, Herbert has shown a greater willingness to scramble from the pocket. 

In Weeks 1-3, he cleared this number once. That came in Week 1 against Kansas City. 

From Week 4 onward, Herbert overtook this line eight times in 13 games. The potential good news here is that New England lacks a competent pass rush. 

That likely means more blitz packages against a banged-up offensive line. Los Angeles, including the games where Alt played, finished 32nd in pass-block win rate. 

For the season, only 12 teams posted a higher blitz rate than the Patriots defense. If blitzes come, it leaves New England exposed in the second and third levels. 

Mobile quarterbacks also saw success against this line against New England. Josh Allen cleared it in both meetings. Justin Fields reached a 14-yard rush in Foxborough, too. 

Tyler Huntley, Lamar Jackson and Jaxson Dart all stayed under this number. But Herbert offers a closer efficiency comparison to Allen and Fields. 

Accordingly, I predict Herbert clears this line for a ninth time on Sunday.