- The 49ers are predicted to be a 2.5-point home favorite against the Bears.
- The Bears have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
- My 49ers vs Bears prediction is for the Bears (+600) to earn the NFC’s top seed.
The Bears will have another primetime game in Week 17 against the 49ers.
Chicago came from behind dramatically to beat the Packers in overtime last week. With the Lions falling at home to the Steelers, Ben Johnson’s team clinched a playoff spot.
A win in San Francisco earns the Bears the NFC North division title. If Chicago falters, a home win against Detroit would also earn the Bears a division crown.
Bet on 49ers vs. Bears and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
49ers vs. Bears: NFL Week 17 Odds
49ers vs. Bears Prediction
Based on Chicago’s rest advantage in this game and my lack of faith in the Seahawks, my 49ers vs Bears prediction is for the Bears to Earn the NFC’s No. 1 Seed (+600).
The price would suggest this is unlikely. But the Bears actually have a clearer path to the top seed than the Rams (+425).
Seattle earns the top seed by finishing 2-0. But they’re facing a pesky Panthers team in Week 17 that could clinch the NFC South with a win and Bucs loss at Miami.
The Niners also have a clearer path to the top seed. Even if they lose on MNF to Indianapolis, San Francisco claims the top seed with wins over Chicago and Seattle.
The Rams face a more difficult path to the top seed. Here’s how Los Angeles clinches the spot:
- Rams: Wins over Falcons and Cardinals
- Seahawks: Lose to Panthers, Beat 49ers
- 49ers: Beat Colts and Bears, Lose to Seahawks
- Bears: Lose to 49ers, Win/Loss vs. Detroit
That’s a lot to happen for a +425 price when Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago all face easier paths.
In terms of the analysis for this contest, the Bears enter with a net rest advantage over San Francisco.
Playing overtime on Saturday likely harms that edge, but it’s still a short week for the Niners off a road MNF game.
Additionally, the 49ers defense leaves so much to be desired. San Francisco ranks 25th in defensive DVOA, including 27th against the run.
Since losing Fred Warner, the Niners’ run defense has imploded. In Weeks 1-6: 44.9% rush success rate. From Week 7 onward: 49.4%, the second-worst mark in the league.
I still don’t trust the Bears defense, but the team can surely run the ball. Since Week 6, Chicago ranks second in rushing success rate. Only 0.7% separates the Bears from the Rams.
By Week 18, the Bears could face an eliminated Lions defense that got boatraced by a bad Steelers run game.
All of that leads me to believe there’s a higher chance for this prediction than a 14% implied probability.
Betting 49ers vs. Bears: NFL Public Betting
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