NFL Expert Picks Week 12: Points Flow in 49ers-Panthers

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 12 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Following TNF, bettors have a 13-game slate from which to pick on Sunday and Monday.

Notable Sunday matchups include Rams vs Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football and the potential return of Joe Burrow for Bengals vs Patriots.

Elsewhere, the Chiefs try to end a two-game skid against the Colts. To round out the Week 12 action, it’s 49ers vs Panthers on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Packers vs Vikings Prediction: Vikings Spread (+6, -110)

Based on Green Bay’s injury absentees on offense and Minnesota’s defensive strength, my Packers vs Vikings prediction is the Minnesota Vikings Spread (+6, -110). 

I’m not sure I trust Green Bay to cover a big number at this moment. If that were to happen, it likely means the offense plays well. 

Josh Jacobs exited Sunday’s contest with a knee injury, leaving his status in question. Plus, Jordan Love is 11-16 ATS as a favorite, including 5-12 at -3.5 or higher. 

Minnesota lost to Chicago, but won the yards per play battle. Ultimately, J.J. McCarthy’s turnovers doomed the Vikings as home favorites. 

What’s encouraging about Minnesota’s profile as a dog: the offense can run the ball. Exclusive of Week 11, the Vikings rank 14th in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Green Bay entered Week 11 ranked eighth in rush defense, but has struggled of late. In two of their three previous games, the Packers defense allowed over 140 yards on the ground. 

Minnesota just won outright as 9.5-point dogs in Detroit, rushing for 142 yards on 4.9 yards per rush. 

As it stands, Green Bay lacks the ability to contain Minnesota on the ground. With that matchup in mind, I predict Minnesota covers in Green Bay. 

Rams vs Buccaneers Prediction: Rams Over 27.5 Points (-135)

Based on Tampa Bay’s fraudulent defensive record and the Rams’ offensive showing against Seattle, my Rams vs Buccaneers prediction is the Rams Over 27.5 Points (-135). 

I’d love nothing more than to sell high on Tampa Bay’s defensive showing. The issue is they’re playing an objectively better offense than Buffalo in Week 12. 

Buffalo currently ranks fourth in offensive DVOA. By individual metrics, the Bills rank 10th in pass offense and second in rush offense. 

By comparison, the Rams rank second, second and third in those respective statistics. That has come against the ninth-hardest set of defenses, whereas Buffalo has played the 25th-hardest. 

Defensively, Tampa Bay ranks seventh in DVOA against the eighth-hardest set of offenses. Accordingly, a buy-low opportunity should present itself in the future. 

But the Bucs have now played three of the top-four offenses by pass offense DVOA. In the lone road game, Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 35 points to the Seahawks. 

Against New England and San Francisco, the Bucs defense allowed 28 and 19 points, respectively. 

Los Angeles stayed under this figure against Seattle. However, the game included a turnover on downs from the Seattle eight-yard line and a fumble at the Seahawks’ 35-yard line. 

If the Rams convert either or both of those drives into points, this line likely looks much different. 

Before that failure, the Rams offense cleared this benchmark in three straight games. Those qualify as three of four successes against this figure for the season. 

LA’s experience against good defenses should come in handy against an overrated unit, especially through the air. 

As it stands, Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in dropback success rate. On plays excluding turnovers, Tampa Bay’s dropback success rate is in line with Tennessee’s. 

Back in Week 2, the Rams scored 33 against Tennessee’s defense. Based on those factors, I predict a strong offensive showing by the Rams on Sunday. 

49ers vs Panthers Prediction: Total Over 47.5 Points (-110)

Based on Carolina’s expected defensive regression and San Francisco’s weak defensive record, my 49ers vs Panthers prediction is the Total Over 47.5 Points (-110). 

How this total isn’t sitting somewhere in the 50s is beyond me. 

Carolina’s defense offers no resistance. The Panthers rank 23rd in defensive DVOA, having played the 20th-hardest set of offenses. 

Only four times this season has Carolina played an offense 10th or better in DVOA. The resulting points outputs: 42, 27, 40 and 13. 

The last benchmark – at Green Bay – might look encouraging. However, the Packers finished 1-for-5 in the red zone at home. 

On Monday, Carolina faces a 49ers offense ranked sixth in DVOA, having faced the second-hardest schedule of defenses. 

Since Week 9, San Francisco ranks second in EPA per play and first in offensive success rate. 

Read More: The San Francisco 49ers Offense is About to Break Out

All of that said, the 49ers defense cannot be trusted either. 

Since Fred Warner sustained his injury, San Francisco has struggled to limit its opponents. 

Dating back to Week 7, Robert Saleh’s defense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. 

Even if you remove the Rams game from consideration, San Francisco still allowed 20.5 points to Atlanta, Houston, New York (N) and Arizona. Hardly the best offenses in the league. 

Last week, only Buffalo outpaced Arizona in yards per play. With Carolina, at least I know you’re getting an offense that runs the ball well. 

It should also not go ignored that Carolina scored 30 points against a very good Falcons defense. 

They also achieved that feat while finishing 2-for-6 in red zone touchdown conversions. 

Expect San Francisco to contribute the lion’s share of scoring here. However, Carolina should contribute to this total as well.

Accordingly, I predict points flow on MNF.

Saints vs Falcons Prediction: Falcons Team Total Under 19.5 Points (-110)

Based on New Orleans’ expected positive defensive regression and Atlanta’s injury absentees, my Saints vs Falcons prediction is the Falcons Under 19.5 Points (-110)

Kirk Cousins replaces Michael Penix Jr. and won’t have Drake London. That’s a disastrous scenario against a Saints defense that hasn’t played as badly as the record suggests. 

New Orleans ranks 19th in defensive DVOA entering Week 12. However, that record has come against the hardest set of opposing offenses. 

Accordingly, it’s not a surprise that all but two teams have cleared this number. However, the Saints limited an inconsistent Panthers offense to seven points before their bye week. 

Atlanta sent Cousins out twice against New Orleans last season. The Falcons scored 26 at home, but 14 of those points came via defensive touchdowns. 

At New Orleans, Cousins marched the Falcons to only 17 points. Atlanta played with a full complement of offensive weapons in that game. 

That helps create a strong sell-high spot on Atlanta, which has cleared this number in three straight. 

However, Cousins played without London at home against Miami and mustered 10 points. 

With Atlanta entering this game having played two straight overtime games and the Saints off a bye, I predict New Orleans’ defense shows up and keeps Atlanta under this number. 

Raiders vs Browns Prediction: Browns Team Total Under 16.5 Points (-135)

Based on Las Vegas’ defensive prowess and the Browns’ inability to score on the road, my Raiders vs Browns prediction is the Browns Under 16.5 Points (-135). 

Shedeur Sanders is officially starting for Cleveland. He’ll look to clear this number against a defense that isn’t playing as bad as one might think. 

Cleveland has cleared this number four times all season, including twice by the hook. The Browns offense has notched 20 or more only twice – at home against Miami and at the Jets. 

Las Vegas ranks 14th in defensive DVOA, having played the ninth-hardest set of offenses. Unsurprisingly, all but three teams have cleared this number against Vegas. 

Since Week 6, Vegas has either allowed under 11.5 points or over 29.5 points in every game. Which do you think is more likely against Cleveland? 

The Browns are the easiest opponent for Vegas by offensive DVOA this season. That record has come while facing the fourth-easiest set of defenses. 

Cleveland failed to score a touchdown on offense last week against Baltimore. Now they’re tasked with playing a defense that, for the entire season, is better. Currently, Baltimore ranks 20th in defensive DVOA. 

They’ll potentially do so without both Cam Robinson and Jack Conklin at both tackle positions. Maxx Crosby should wreak havoc if both are absent Sunday in Vegas. 

All of that leads me to predict Cleveland finishes under 16.5 points in Week 12. 

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Very few games qualify as a consensus selection across the Week 12 slate. As of Sunday morning, only two games have seen one side receive over 70% of bets to cover the spread:

• Detroit Lions (-13.5) vs New York Giants: 84% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) at Tennessee Titans: 79% of bets placed to cover the spread

Notably, a couple marquee games see differences in bets placed vs money wagered. In Cowboys vs Eagles, bets prefer the Eagles whereas money favors Dallas.

The same was true in Chiefs vs Colts on Friday – bets preferred the Colts, but money supported the Chiefs. As of Sunday morning, both bets and money are aligned on Kansas City to cover.

Get NFL public betting data on all Week 12 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.