Lions vs. Packers Prediction: NFL Week 14 Odds, Betting Picks, TNF

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Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love warms up before an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Dec 05, 2024, 10:44 AM
  • The Lions are a 3.5-point home favorite against the Packers.
  • The Lions have won 11 straight games against NFC opponents on a winning streak.
  • My Lions vs. Packers prediction is for Green Bay to cover the spread.

To kick off the Week 14 NFL slate, the Lions will try to earn their 11th consecutive win as hosts against the Packers.ย 

Both teams played on Thanksgiving Day with each earning a victory. Detroit escaped with a win over the Bears, despite allowing a second-half comeback from Chicago.ย 

Green Bay dominated from start to finish against the Dolphins. A 13-point win handed Green Bay their third straight win since a Week 10 bye.ย 

Bet on Lions vs. Packers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 14 Odds: Lions vs. Packers

2024-12-06T01:15:00Z

Packers at Lions

Lions vs. Packers Prediction

Based on the Lionsโ€™ mounting injuries on defense and Green Bayโ€™s strong offensive record in the last game, my Lions vs. Packers prediction is the Packers Spread (+3.5, -110).ย 

Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone and now Malcolm Rodriguez. Those are the glaring absentees for Detroit, which also has Marcus Davenport on IR and Carlton Davis sidelined.ย 

The quality of Detroitโ€™s offense may be enough to overcome those absences from an outright standpoint, but will they really cover this big a number?ย 

Green Bay fell by 10 points at home, but a Jordan Love pick six rendered that final score slightly misleading.ย 

Offensively, Green Bay carried a 6.6-4.7 edge in yards per play, including six yards per rush attempt against the Lions.ย 

Although it took Chicagoโ€™s offense a while to break out on Thanksgiving, Iโ€™m attributing some of that to the lingering effects of overtime against Minnesota.ย 

Despite their slow start, Chicago, which ranked 26th in offensive DVOA prior to their Week 13 game, amassed 5.1 yards per play.ย 

Now Detroit has to face a battle-tested Green Bay offense.ย 

Excluding Week 13, the Packers ranked third in offensive DVOA, having faced the second-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.ย 

Even if the Green Bay defense struggles against Detroitโ€™s offense, Iโ€™ll always believe the chance of a backdoor cover exists.ย 

History also likes this spot for the Packers.ย 

Since 2003, road divisional dogs between +1 and +6.5 are 64.5% ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The underdogโ€™s margin in the last head-to-head meeting fell between -17 and -1
  • The underdog closed a market favorite in their previous game

Take the Packers to cover the spread in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football.ย 

Betting Lions vs. Packers: NFL Public Betting

Bets% (ATS)Money% (ATS)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Packers39%53%51%63%
Lions61%47%49%37%
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.