- The Lions are a three-point home favorite against the Packers.
- The Lions have scored last in each of their last nine home games.
- My Lions vs Packers prediction is the Packers (+3) to cover the spread.
The Thanksgiving action begins with the Lions hosting the Packers in an NFC North clash.
Both teams enter Thursday’s game off a win. Detroit needed overtime to escape with a 34-27 win over the Giants. The win lifts Detroit to 7-4, good for third in the NFC North.
Green Bay cruised to a 23-6 win over the Vikings on Sunday, covering easily as 6.5-point favorites. Earlier this season, Green Bay beat Detroit 27-13.
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Lions vs. Packers: NFL Week 13 Odds
Lions vs. Packers Prediction
Based on Green Bay’s effective pass rush and previous success stopping Detroit’s rushing attack, my Lions vs Packers prediction is the Packers Spread (+3, -105).
Teams beat Detroit by rushing Jared Goff and limiting the two-headed rushing monster.
Earlier this season, Green Bay accomplished both feats. Detroit produced a 2.1 yards per rush output with Goff taking four sacks.
Green Bay’s rushing defense has proved inconsistent this season. However, I don’t think it’s an accident that they took a step forward on Sunday with Lukas van Ness returning.
Of course, it’s easy to accomplish that feat against a Vikings offense that can’t throw the forward pass.
That said, I like the matchup for Green Bay’s pass rush. Exclusive of Sunday’s action, the Packers ranked 10th in pass-rush win rate. Detroit ranks 25th in pass-block win rate.
Including Sunday’s game, the Lions are 3-3 when Goff takes two or more sacks. Otherwise, they’ve gone 4-1 SU.
From a Packers offensive standpoint, Green Bay should excel through the air. On Sunday, Detroit surrendered 10.4 yards per attempt and registered only one sack.
Thursday’s contest marks only the fourth for Detroit against a top-10 pass DVOA unit. They’re 0-3 SU in the first three, allowing 6.7 yards per attempt.
Plus, Jordan Love has dominated man-heavy coverage schemes. This season, he leads the league in EPA per dropback against man. He also ranks third in DVOA against man coverage.
Accordingly, I predict the Packers cover the spread on short rest in Detroit.
Betting Lions vs. Packers: NFL Public Betting
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