Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Pick: Week 4

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Raiders vs Chiefs prediction for the AFC West clash in Las Vegas.

Raiders vs Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total

Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction

Based on the Raiders’ lackluster defensive performance in Week 3 and easy schedule so far, my Raiders vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Over 26.5 Points (-115). 

We finally saw the Raiders defense break in Week 3. As a 3.5-point underdog to the Saints, Las Vegas allowed 27 points and a 7.7% defensive DVOA rating.

Comparatively, the Raiders averaged 13.5 points per game allowed and a -19.3% DVOA rating against the Dolphins and Chargers.

Through three games, the Raiders have faced the second-easiest set of offenses. By last year’s data, the defense has yet to play a game against a top-20 DVOA offense.

What is concerning for the Raiders is that Week 3 could have gone so much worse.

In the fourth quarter, the Saints turned the ball over on all four offensive drives. Three came in Raiders territory.

Excluding turnovers, the Raiders finished with the third-worst defensive success rate in Week 3.

Now the Raiders defense returns home to face its hardest opponent to date. Kansas City ranks fourth in offensive DVOA through three games, 15 spots ahead of the Saints.

Andy Reid’s offense finished with 24 points in humid Miami. What is hidden within that output is that Kansas City left opportunities on the table.

The Chiefs reached Miami’s red zone five times, converting three into touchdowns.

In the second quarter, the Chiefs turned the ball over on downs from the Dolphins’ 12-yard line. In the third quarter, the Chiefs backed up from first-and-goal from the eight into a field goal.

Buoyed by Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs have yet to amass fewer than five red zone chances in any game this season.

With so many unknowns around the Raiders defense, I predict the Chiefs clear their team total at a higher rate than these odds imply.