Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Bills vs Patriots prediction for their Week 4 matchup in Buffalo.
Bills vs Patriots Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Patriots vs Bills Prediction
Based on the Bills’ defensive struggles and bettors’ lack of interest in the Patriots, my Bills vs Patriots prediction is the New England Patriots Moneyline (+260).
I get it – Drake Maye looks absolutely awful. But are we really going to be so quick to judge after he played three games against top-11 defenses from 2025?
No one will be surprised to learn turnovers are what plagued Maye.
New England’s eight giveaways are tied with the Falcons. Mike Vrabel’s team currently possesses a -5 differential, which is second worst.
I want to focus on what happens outside those turnovers. New England, on plays excluding turnovers, ranks 15th in dropback EPA per play and 10th in dropback success rate.
Granted, the success rate falls to 45.9% in Week 3. But answer this question honestly: is the Bills secondary better than the Jaguars’ secondary?
I’d argue the answer is no, especially after Christian Benford left with an injury on Sunday. Bettors will also do well to remember the Bills ran extremely lucky in two of three wins.
In Week 1, Buffalo won 36-31 despite a -7.6% net success rate against Houston. In Week 3, Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16 despite a +3.2% net success rate.
I’ve left a game convinced by the Bills once: Detroit in Week 2 (+10% net success rate). It came against one of the league’s worst defenses playing on a short week off overtime.
The Patriots, despite some regression, remain an outstanding defense. Last year, New England held the Bills to 20 points in Buffalo with Milton Williams available. Without him, they allowed 35.
No betting interest exists on the Patriots either. As I write this, 87% of straight ATS bets are backing Buffalo to cover. A whopping 91% of straight moneyline bets are on the Bills.
That comes despite the Bills playing awful football in Week 3. If Maye can clean up some of the turnover regression, I predict the Patriots exploit a bad Bills defense and win outright on Sunday.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
