Rams vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Pick: Week 5 MNF

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Rams vs Bills prediction for their Week 5 MNF meeting.

Rams vs Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total

Bills vs Rams Prediction

Based on the Rams’ sizable offensive advantage and the Bills’ offensive injuries, my Rams vs Bills prediction is the Los Angeles Rams Spread (-3, -108).

When two elite teams face off, you almost need to focus on the largest weakness on both sides. For me, the worst unit on the field Monday will be the Buffalo Bills defense.

Go ahead and slander the Rams’ special teams miscues all you want. In reality, I trust the Rams offense to move the ball on a bad defense that has largely faced poor opposition.

Buffalo ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA through four games, per FTN Fantasy. Only once all season – Week 3 against the Chargers – have the Bills posted an above-average pass defense rating.

The Rams sit 14th in pass offense DVOA entering Week 4. However, the unit operated without Puka Nacua for two games and performed better with him against Philadelphia.

On plays excluding turnovers, Los Angeles ranked eighth in dropback success rate at Philadelphia. Week over week, the Rams’ dropback success rate went from 44.2% at Denver to 55.4% at the Eagles.

Now Sean McVay gets a defense likely missing Christian Benford at cornerback. Without him, I question how the Bills defense gets stops against one of the league’s best aerial attacks.

Conversely, I worry about Josh Allen’s viability as an underdog in a negative game state. D.J. Moore remains hurt, and the other skill players have regressed since Week 2.

Forcing the Bills to rely on the passing game is, in my estimation, a winning strategy. Recently, the Bills offense delivered inferior passing metrics.

In Buffalo’s first two games, the offense recorded a 93.8% pass offense DVOA rating. Against the Chargers and Patriots, Buffalo recorded a -3.5% rating.

Given that drop-off, I predict the Rams win and cover due to Buffalo’s defensive inefficiencies.