NFL Week 7 Matchups: Analyzing Seahawks vs Chiefs

Seahawks vs Chiefs on Sunday Night Football absolutely fascinates me. It’s unlikely for the reason you think.

All the eyes will likely be on former Seahawk Kenneth Walker III in his return to Seattle. Ahead of his visit, Walker III leads the NFL Offensive Player of the Year race.

But the more intriguing matchup is the Seahawks offense vs the Chiefs defense. This matchup will likely decide the game.

Why? Let’s dive into the matchup analysis based on current NFL odds.

Seahawks vs Chiefs Matchup: Seattle Offense Drives Result

For three games, the Seahawks passing offense looked like its usual self. A coordinator change from Klint Kubiak to Brian Fleury largely went unnoticed as Seattle began the season 2-0.

The offense played well once again in Washington, an unlucky 33-31 defeat. Over their first three games, Seattle averaged a 52.1% pass offense DVOA rating, per FTN Fantasy.

If they had kept that pace, they’d rank second in pass offense DVOA entering Week 7. Instead, the unit completely plummeted against the Chargers, 49ers and Broncos.

Seattle averaged a -26.5% pass offense DVOA rating in those three games. After recording a 39.5% floor in their first three games, the aerial attack recorded a 3.3% ceiling.

Two of those games came against top-six defenses. Even without Patrick Surtain II, Denver’s pass rush caused enough problems to help out the secondary.

Sunday’s game marks the easiest test in quite some time for Seattle. Kansas City ranks 14th in defensive DVOA, a far cry from the fifth-place Patriots rating the Seahawks faced in Week 1.

They’ve simultaneously shown an inability to rush the passer. Kansas City’s 4.2% adjusted sack rate is tied for last in the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys.

Half of Kansas City’s eight sacks came against a Chargers line decimated by injuries.

Essentially, Seattle’s weak rushing attack vs. a strong Chiefs run defense is a wash. Entering the game, Kansas City ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA (-23.7%).

A case for pessimism exists based on their first two weeks. Playing Denver and Indianapolis, the Chiefs defense recorded a -1% and -8.2% rush defense DVOA rating.

But we’ve seen the secondary record volatile pass-coverage metrics.

In Week 1, the Chiefs defense recorded a -68.1% pass defense DVOA rating against Bo Nix. I’d hardly describe it as an accomplishment given what we’ve seen from Denver this year.

A week later, the Chiefs defense recorded a 30.9% pass defense DVOA rating against the Colts. It’s concerning when you consider it qualifies as Indy’s best passing grade of the year.

In Week 4, Kansas City traveled to face the Raiders. As a 4.5-point road favorite, Kansas City allowed 27 points and a 62.9% pass defense DVOA rating.

Once again, it qualifies as Las Vegas’ best pass DVOA grade of the season.

Now Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has to travel to face a team off a mini-bye week.

In Week 4, Kansas City stole an unlikely victory against the Raiders due to a critical special teams takeaway.

Given Seattle’s continued defensive strength, I’m cautiously optimistic about a team getting no NFL public betting support.