- Turkey is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favorite against Paraguay.
- Turkey lost 2-0 to Australia, ending a six-match unbeaten streak.
- My Turkey vs Paraguay prediction is Paraguay 1H Over 0.5 (+165).
Turkey and Paraguay go head-to-head in Group D as both attempt to reach third.
Paraguay suffered a 4-1 defeat against the USMNT last Friday, its second defeat over the last three matches.
Turkey fell 2-0 to Australia a day later, thanks to horrific attacking metrics. As a -140 favorite, Turkey needed 30 attempts to muster 1.4 expected goals.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Turkey vs Paraguay prediction.
Turkey vs Paraguay: World Cup Odds
Paraguay vs Turkey Prediction
Based on Paraguay’s rest advantage, travel edge and Turkey’s weak defensive record against Australia, my Turkey vs Paraguay prediction is Paraguay 1H Over 0.5 (+165).
Off the bat, Turkey goes behind the eight ball for this match. Paraguay gets an extra day of rest after playing on Friday, while the UEFA outfit played late Saturday in Vancouver.
A travel advantage exists for Paraguay, too. The South American side returned to its home base San Francisco, after playing in Los Angeles. They’ll face Turkey in the Bay Area.
Meanwhile, Turkey returns to Mesa, Arizona, from its opening match in Vancouver. Then they’ll head to San Francisco at a rest disadvantage.
It should lead to a faster start from Paraguay. Plus, Australia showed that Turkey’s defense can be exploited.
The Socceroos, which possess an attack lacking much talent, raced out to a 1-0 halftime lead. In the opening 45 minutes, the Australians created 0.99 expected goals and 0.85 post-shot xG.
Paraguay struggled to create early against the USMNT. But they surrendered an early own goal, which lessens the chances for an underdog to take control of the ball and score goals.
Turkey showed me so little in attack that I question if they earn a similar advantage. As noted earlier, they posted a measly 0.05 xG per shot figure against Australia.
It marked the second straight match where Turkey surrendered a first-half goal. In its final pre-tournament friendly, it allowed Venezuela to score inside 15 minutes.
Those factors, along with the travel schedule, lead me to predict Paraguay scores a first-half goal at a higher frequency than its 38.5% implied probability suggests.
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