How Often Do College Football Games Go Over the Total?

What’s the most popular bet in football? You might be tempted to say it’s the square favorite – that popular brand team that’s laying a modest number of points and playing at home.

That could be the case. But there’s at least a passing chance that the over is the most popular bet for any given football game on any given weekend. Fans love to bet on offense and will even develop sayings around betting totals.

If I only had a dollar for every time I’ve heard someone opine, “Life’s too short to bet the under.”

In NCAA football odds, over bets are particularly popular because of the highest-scoring nature of the college game. The totals are higher, too, with some conferences regularly pushing totals into the 60s and 70s. 

But is targeting the over en masse actually a good strategy? I dug into the data to find a definitive answer. 

How Often Do College Football Games Go Over the Total?

Since 2005, college football games have gone “over” 49.2% of the time.

Since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA, overs have hit at a slightly better 49.4%.

Last year, during the 2025 regular season, overs cashed at a 48.8% clip – one of the worst rates of the last 20 years. And remember, the breakeven point for -110 bettors is 52.4%, so you’re quite underwater below 49%!

One thing to remember if you’re planning to bet an over – it’s almost always the most popular half of the market. That leads to a kind of natural market inflation that eats away at betting value relative to a fair market price. 

In other words, proceed with caution! And considering how often college football under bets hit, you might start by seeking out the other side of the market. 

You can also get more surgical by going program by program and looking for strong individual team trends. For that, you can start with my article tracking over/under records for every college football team.