The Heisman Trophy odds have been shifting this month. As more bettors enter the market armed with preseason research and knowledge, the market begins to move and evolve toward its eventual Week 1 posture.
I’ve already written this week about how Dante Moore took a Heisman odds adjustment, with the veteran Oregon quarterback now fourth in the market at 10-to-1.
But Moore isn’t the only quarterback on the move. Sophomore Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has been the target of some preseason action that’s driving his price from the land of the long shots into true midrange territory.
Let’s start at the beginning. Russell has 15 career pass attempts at Alabama, playing in garbage time last season against Louisiana-Monroe and FCS Eastern Illinois. With Ty Simpson now in the NFL, Russell is the favorite to win the starting job for 2026.
Russell opened the Heisman market at +8000 in the spring. By late July, he was 35-to-1. As of today, he’s 25-to-1, alongside names like USC quarterback Jayden Maiava and Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed – both of whom were live midseason Heisman candidates last October.
Alabama fans and SEC observers are quick to point out that the fast-shortening price is indicative of Russell’s big-time talent, or how the Crimson Tide have a guy that can get them back to the College Football Playoff.
And … maybe? But I have one teensy, inconvenient question.
If Russell is so good, why is his potential backup quarterback, Austin Mack, 40-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy?
That’s right. Alabama currently has two quarterbacks that are +4000 or shorter to win the Heisman.
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The truth of Russell’s price is actually pretty simple. His individual talent and aptitude for the quarterback position could be average, elite, or all-time great. I’m not at Alabama’s camp, and I have zero inside information on this player.
What I do know is that Alabama players won back-to-back Heisman Trophies five years ago. And ever since Bryce Young lifted that trophy in December of 2021, there’s been an unquenchable thirst for betting interest in betting the Alabama quarterback – whoever that might be – during the college football preseason.
If BetMGM simply priced a nameless “Alabama quarterback” as a bettable option in the Heisman market, I honestly believe it would get at least 1% of the market. In my opinion, the market interest in betting Alabama quarterbacks to win the Heisman far outstrips the personalized interest in Russell or Mack.
Keelon Russell could be everything he’s been hyped to be and more. But I’m not ready to buy any Heisman hype without seeing a little something in September first.
I’ve just seen this August odds movement around Alabama football odds and Alabama quarterbacks too many times.
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