After Loss at Texas, Ohio State Becomes a Bigger National Championship Favorite

Ohio State blew a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s primetime game at Texas. Across college football, the meltdown prompted plenty of Buckeye jokes and recriminations about head coach Ryan Day.

But days later, Ohio State is getting the last laugh. The loss, coupled with other events from Saturday’s Week 2 schedule, ultimately made Ohio State football odds an even bigger favorite in BetMGM’s national championship market.

Let me explain.

Heading into Week 2, Texas and Ohio State were priced as 6-to-1 co-favorites in BetMGM’s college football national championship odds market. The general market read was that the winner in their head-to-head contest would be the new, solo national favorite to begin Week 3 – for whatever that status might be worth, anyway.

But by Monday, Ohio State was still the favorite after losing 24-23, and their title odds had been adjusted down from +600 to +500. The Buckeyes became a bigger national favorite after losing to Texas.

“Ohio State might have choked late against Texas, but they are still the favorites to win the national championship,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “The Buckeyes are the most-bet team to win the title since their collapse on Saturday, and Jeremiah Smith is the most-bet player to win the Heisman in that time.”

There are a few potential explanations for what’s going on here. One could be that the market feels Ohio State showed their prowess in establishing the 20-point lead and is unlikely to blow another game like this – especially in a true road game, which may not even apply in the playoffs if the Buckeyes get another bye.

Another is that Ohio State’s mostly good play in a tough environment answered any remaining questions about the potential for Arthur Smith’s new offense in Columbus. 

The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that the Big Ten appears weaker – and thus more winnable – after Oregon’s shocking loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday. So even though Ohio State has already taken a loss, their path to and through the playoff appears easier with Oregon taking a significant downgrade.

Personally, I still think there’s a real chance Ohio State could miss the CFP entirely, given how difficult the schedule is. I wrote about the schedule difficulty over the summer, and the Buckeyes already have one loss on the board. Would they still make the field at 9-3? Or 8-4? With road games at Iowa, Indiana, and USC, plus November home games against Oregon and Michigan, you can’t assume the Buckeyes are going to fall forward into the playoffs.

For now, though, that’s exactly what the college football betting world is doing. And if the market is overweight on Ohio State, that means there should be lots of value somewhere else.