All eyes are on Austin this weekend as Texas hosts Ohio State in a critical 2026 college football game.
Yes, this is a game on the College GameDay schedule, and so lots of people will be tuned in. Saturday’s game is also huge for the College Football Playoff picture and the championship odds market.
As of Friday, Ohio State and Texas are +600 co-favorites in BetMGM’s college football national championship odds. The Buckeyes spent the summer as the sole favorites, but Texas football odds were adjusted down after Week 1. Barring late market movement, these teams will take the field as co-favorites to win it all.
Naturally, that means a lot is riding on the outcome of this Week 2 game. The winner will likely spend the next several weeks as the unquestioned national championship favorite – at least as far as the odds are concerned.
One of the things driving Texas into its new co-favorite status is a staggering amount of handle at BetMGM.
Consider Ohio State, which had been a top futures choice for many bettors throughout the offseason. The Buckeyes accumulated 12% of tickets and 9.6% of handle in the championship market by the end of Week 1 – a pretty high market share for the start of a season.
But Texas has nearly tripled Ohio State’s handle number in recent days, growing to represent 26.3% of all dollars wagered in BetMGM’s national championship market as of Sept. 7. This is, by far, the highest handle of any team in the outright market at BetMGM.
The Longhorns play an SEC schedule and face Ohio State on Saturday, which gives them plenty of opportunities to impress the selection committee and ultimately make the CFP. It wouldn’t be unrealistic to imagine a 9-3 Texas team in December’s 12-team field. That ease of access could be one reason why big-money bettors love Texas so much.
In other words, Texas is likely in the playoff if it wins on Saturday. But if the Longhorns lose, their SEC schedule still gives them a wide path to the postseason.
If Texas wins on Saturday, those futures bettors should have immediate closing line value. And if the Longhorns lose … well, perhaps they’ll go back to the well on Texas at a longer number.
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