Early Heisman Bettors Are Not Afraid to Back Arch Manning – Again

Last month, I wrote about how the early Heisman favorite for 2026 isn’t who you’d expect. 

The player I was referring to was Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr – a pro-style quarterback who has yet to attract much national fanfare at the college level. Because of his team’s play style, his lack of mobility, his schedule opportunities, and a bunch of other factors, he just doesn’t profile like a potential Heisman frontrunner.

But there was another player I made reference to in that article, and he deserves some attention, too.

You may have heard of him.

His name is Arch Manning.

Arch Manning – the son of Cooper Manning and nephew to Eli and Peyton – is entering his redshirt junior year at the University of Texas. He was eligible for the draft in 2026 but elected to return to Austin this year.

Arch is maybe best known for inheriting the mantle from Quinn Ewers after 2024 and having insane expectations ahead of the 2025 season. Thousands of people bought preseason Heisman tickets for Arch.

Then, the Longhorns’ offense crashed and burned against Ohio State in Week 1.

For many players, this would have been enough cold water to derail a national hype train. But given his last name, Arch Manning remained the most popular Heisman candidate in BetMGM’s market deep into October 2025. His campaign was dead long before his betting market was.

Before the 2026 Heisman market was even priced, one of the most interesting questions I was looking forward to was whether the negative experiences from last year’s season would carry over into this year’s preseason market. 

But so far, that hasn’t happened. Arch Manning opened at 8-to-1 and has been adjusted to +750, putting him squarely in line with Carr as a co-favorite. 

That movement has been driven primarily by betting action. As of May 20, Manning accounts for a staggering 15.1% of tickets and 21.6% of early-market handle backing Manning to win the Heisman in 2026.

So far, that’s quite a bit more than any other player, with No. 2 option Carr accounting for 11.5% of tickets and 10.7% of money.

Behind Manning, the next-best SEC quarterback is former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt – now at LSU – who accounts for 3.7% of tickets and 2.3% of handle. (No surprise there, since LSU players and team futures are often heavily bet by in-state Tigers fans.)

At this rate, don’t be surprised if Manning takes over sole favorite status at some point this summer. Add in the potential for a Week 2 win against Ohio State, and this price is more likely to get much shorter than longer. If you’re bullish on Manning’s Heisman candidacy, now is a good time to stake a position.