Trail Blazers vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 29, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Heat are -14.5 favorites vs. the Trail Blazers
  • Total (Over/Under): 210.5 points
  • Watch the game on RTNW | SUN

The Portland Trail Blazers visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Trail Blazers vs Heat Over/Under is 209.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Trail Blazers are 34-38 against the spread, while the Heat are 34-37 against the spread.


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Trail Blazers vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Portland Trail Blazers+14.5 -115O 209.5 -105+700
Miami Heat -14.5 -105U 209.5 -115-1100

Heat vs Trail Blazers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 95.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Trail Blazers and Heat.

Heat vs Trail Blazers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 60.7% confidence.


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  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have covered the 4Q Spread in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 81 games (+24.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 96 games (+18.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 42 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 41 games (+17.65 Units / 38% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Trail Blazers have gone 34-38 (-7.8 Units / -9.71% ROI).

  • 19-54 against the Moneyline (-12.2 Units / -15.72% ROI)
  • 37-36 against the Over for game total points (-2.6 Units / -3.24% ROI)
  • 36-37 against the Under for game total points (-4.65 Units / -5.79% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 34-37 (-6.7 Units / -8.46% ROI).

  • 39-33 against the Moneyline (-3 Units / -2.39% ROI)
  • 26-46 against the Over for game total points (-24.6 Units / -31.06% ROI)
  • 46-26 against the Under for game total points (+17.4 Units / 21.97% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 81 games (-32.40 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-31.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 88 games (-27.15 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 41 games (-23.90 Units / -50% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 83 games (-23.15 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 72 games (-24.25 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 74 games (-22.10 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only covered the 1H Spread in 30 of their last 76 games (-20.20 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 63 games (-18.75 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 74 games (-18.25 Units / -21% ROI)

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Portland Trail Blazers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Trail Blazers are 2-11 (.154) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .535

The Trail Blazers are 1-12 (.077) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .403

The Trail Blazers are 4-21 (.160) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .407

The Trail Blazers are 1-8 (.111) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .423

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers

The Heat were 12-8 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

The Heat are 61-17 (.782) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .649

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

Injury Report: Heat vs. Trail BlazersFriday‘s Game, Mar. 29

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Scoot Henderson (Portland Trail Blazers): Groin, Out
  • Rayan Rupert (Portland Trail Blazers): Ankle, Out
  • Moses Brown (Portland Trail Blazers): Wrist, Out
  • Shaedon Sharpe (Portland Trail Blazers): Abdomen, Out
  • Malcolm Brogdon (Portland Trail Blazers): Elbow, Out
  • Robert Williams (Portland Trail Blazers): Knee, Out For Season

Portland Trail Blazers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Trail Blazers have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,684 assists/ 1,110 TOs) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Trail Blazers have a TS% of 49% this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Trail Blazers have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (876 assists/ 557 TOs) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Trail Blazers have an eFG% of 51% in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 11.9 fast break points per game (1,840 points/154 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Heat have an eFG% of 48% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Portland Trail Blazers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Trail Blazers have averaged 32.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,352 rebounds/73 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Trail Blazers averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,738 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Trail Blazers have averaged 32.8 defensive rebounds per game (5,090 rebounds/155 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Trail Blazers have averaged 7.8 steals per game (568 steals/73 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (484 blocks/154 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (241 blocks/72 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (248 blocks/78 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.