2 Best NFL Player Props for MNF: 49ers vs Commanders

49ers vs Commanders closes the Week 6 action as San Francisco tries to earn a 6-0 start.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

49ers vs Commanders Prediction: MNF Player Props

George Kittle Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Kittle slumped to 24 yards against a strong Seattle defense. It marked the first time since Week 1 he failed to amass at least 70 receiving yards in a contest.

With San Francisco operating as a home favorite between Week 2 and 4, Kittle played his best. He averaged 77.3 yards per game, including against superior opposition to Washington.

The tight end reached 80 against Miami (29th in pass defense DVOA), 82 against Arizona (30th) and 70 against Denver (seventh).

Now he gets a Washington defense that has struggled to defend the pass, especially against tight ends.

Dan Quinn’s defense arrives at MNF ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Only once all season – against Indy – has the unit recorded an above-average grade.

The unit also ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA against tight ends specifically. On average, opposing tight ends averaged 8.3 targets per game and 81.7 yards vs. the Commanders.

Last week, Isaiah Likely caught nine passes for 94 yards against Washington. In Week 3 against Seattle, the Commanders allowed 69 yards to A.J. Barner.

Against one of the best passing attacks in the league, I predict Kittle will continue to expose a weak Washington defense.

Chig Okonkwo Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Whereas the Commanders defense leaks yards to opposing tight ends, the 49ers defense locks the position down.

San Francisco has allowed only 35.6 yards to opposing tight ends this season. It qualifies as the sixth-best mark in the entire league.

It offers a potential sell-high spot on Okonkwo, who recorded a season-best game against the Giants. His four receptions – tied for his season total to that point – went for 60 yards.

But it’s an entirely different matchup to consider for Monday’s game. Okonkwo goes from facing a Giants defense ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA to a 49ers defense ranked third.

Additionally, San Francisco places third in DVOA against tight ends. The ranking comes despite a poor effort against Trey McBride (9 receptions, 75 yards).

However, the defense kept all remaining tight ends under this benchmark.

As an underdog in Philadelphia, Okonkwo caught only two passes for 16 yards, one of which went for 15 yards.

It leads me to predict Okonkwo, in a similar script against a more difficult unit, will stay under a low benchmark.