Green Bay will go for a second straight victory in Week 3 on TNF in Packers vs Falcons.
Matt LaFleur’s team won an ugly overtime game against the Jets in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Falcons fell to 0-2 after the Panthers throttled Atlanta 34-3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.
Packers vs Falcons Predictions: TNF Player Props
Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
A long time has passed since Penix Jr. saw actual NFL game action. I expect him to look rusty out of the gate against a turnover-happy Packers defense.
Green Bay forced both Kyler Murray and Geno Smith into a turnover-worthy play. Murray tossed an interception before exiting the game while Carson Wentz added a TWP in relief.
Atlanta likely deploys a pass-heavy game script on Thursday as sizable road underdogs. Additionally, if there’s an area to exploit on the Packers defense, it’s the secondary.
Green Bay ranks 15th in rush defense DVOA vs 18th in pass defense, per FTN Fantasy.
Bolstering Penix’s interception prop analysis? He’s a negative regression candidate based on last season.
Penix threw only three interceptions in nine starts. However, it came against 11 turnover-worthy plays.
Accordingly, I predict Penix will regress in his first start back from injury.
Jordan Love Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Atlanta placed star corner A.J. Terrell on injured reserve before Thursday’s game. It means he’ll miss at least the next four games.
It presents a major issue for the Falcons secondary against a good Packers offense. Even without Jayden Reed, the offense moved the ball on New York’s secondary.
Love threw for only 145 yards, but the weather likely impacted his performance. Still, Green Bay arrives at Thursday’s game possessing a positive pass DVOA rating.
The ceiling remains further from Green Bay’s current benchmark. However, it’s worth remembering Love threw for 387 yards against the Vikings in Week 1.
Atlanta played well against Pittsburgh in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers threw for only 221 yards and a touchdown. But Bryce Young racked up 287 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2.
The latter game matters more here because of Terrell’s absence. Plus, the Falcons are running single-high coverage at a 75.6% clip in two games.
Last year, Love dominated that coverage scheme. Only Drake Maye and C.J. Stroud recorded a higher EPA per dropback vs. the scheme.
As a result, I predict Love clears a lower benchmark after struggling in Week 2.
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