- The Bears are predicted to be a 3.5-point home underdog against the Rams.
- Chicago has won seven games, including the playoffs, trailing in the final two minutes.
- My Bears vs Rams prediction is the Rams 1H Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-140).
Chicago will go for a second straight win as home underdogs against the powerful LA Rams.
Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams produced another improbable comeback against the Packers on Saturday. Down 21-3 at the half, the Bears used a 25-point fourth quarter to win as dogs.
Los Angeles survived a late comeback from the Panthers in a 34-31 victory. The offensive output marked the fifth time in the last six games that Los Angeles surpassed 30 points.
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Bears vs. Rams: NFL Divisional Round Odds
Bears vs. Rams Prediction
Based on Chicago’s slow starts and the defensive mismatch against the Rams offense, my Bears vs Rams predictions is the Rams 1H Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-140).
I’ll begin with a case for optimism for Bears fans: the (presumed) game script benefits another comeback effort.
That being said, the Rams offense should eviscerate Chicago’s defense early. In the wild-card round, Green Bay scored 21 first-half points against Chicago.
In Week 17 at San Francisco – the closest comparison to LA’s offense – the Bears surrendered 28 first-half points.
Chicago has now played six games against teams sixth or higher in pass offense DVOA. Here are their points allowed in the first half: 28, 14, 6, 28, 13, 21.
That lone “success” came at home against the Packers with Josh Jacobs banged up. Even scarier is that the Rams offense leads that group in offensive DVOA.
During the regular season, Chicago ranked 25th in defensive DVOA (+6.2%).
Not since Week 10 have the Rams played a defense ranked 24th or worse in defensive DVOA. In a visit to the 49ers, Los Angeles scored 42 against the 49ers, including 21 in the first half.
Last week, Sean McVay’s offense racked up 17 first-half points against a “better” Panthers defense (22nd in DVOA).
Irrespective of opponent, the Rams averaged 15 first-half points per game this season. Conversely, Chicago allowed 12.5.
But the Rams achieved that feat against a significantly harder schedule. Accordingly, I predict the offense starts fast in Chicago.
Betting Bears vs. Rams: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Rams (-3.5) | 40% | 43% |
| Bears (+3.5) | 60% | 57% |
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