Chargers vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – AFC Wild Card Playoffs

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 14, 2023, 12:05 PM
  • The Chargers (10-7) are -2 point favorites vs the Jaguars (9-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBC

The Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) visit TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) on Saturday, Jan. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Jacksonville for the AFC Wild Card playoff game.

The Chargers are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Chargers vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under, AFC Wild Card Game:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers-2.5 -11047.5 -110-145
Jaguars +2.5 -11047.5 -110+120

Chargers vs. Jaguars Prediction for AFC Wild Card game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this AFC Wild Card game with 51.7% confidence.

Chargers vs Jaguars Spread Prediction for AFC Wild Card game

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread in this AFC Wild Card game with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and Jaguars, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for the AFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for the AFC Wild Card game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Travis Etienne has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jaguars vs Chargers

Player Name Over Under
Evan Engram 41.5 -115 41.5 -115
Travis Etienne 15.5 -115 15.5 -115
Zay Jones 49.5 -120 49.5 -115
Keenan Allen 74.5 -120 74.5 -115
Austin Ekeler 36.5 -115 36.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jaguars vs Chargers

Player Name Over Under
Travis Etienne 76.5 -115 76.5 -115
Justin Herbert 7.5 -115 7.5 -115
Austin Ekeler 51.5 -115 51.5 -115
JaMycal Hasty 10.5 -120 10.5 -110
Joshua Kelley 20.5 -120 20.5 -110
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have scored last in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 30% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 11-5 (+5.5 Units / 29.65% ROI).

  • Chargers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 2% ROI
  • Chargers are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -20.86% ROI
  • Chargers are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 8-9 (-1.9 Units / -10.22% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 8.15% ROI
  • Jaguars are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.95 Units / -10.4% ROI
  • Jaguars are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chargers are 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run offenses this season — tied for 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .541.

The Chargers are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .591.

The Chargers are 1-4 (.200) when allowing 250 or more passing yards this season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.

The Chargers are undefeated (3-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .549.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Jaguars are 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .763.

The Jaguars are 7-5 (.583) when underdogs this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .339.

The Jaguars are 5-2 (.714) at home this season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Jaguars are 4-34 (.105) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars threw the ball 68.1% of the time last week — highest in NFL. The Chargers allowed 11.1 yards per dropback in Week 18 — worst in NFL.

The Jaguars are averaging 6.4 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 5.8 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars are averaging 8.4 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field since Week 15 — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 7.6 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left since Week 15 — second-worst in NFL.

Chargers RBs have averaged 10.5 targets per game this season — highest in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 6.0 receptions per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL.

The Chargers have thrown for 4,778 passing yards in 17 games (281.1 YPG) this season — third-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 238.5 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Chargers RBs have 53.6 receiving yards per game this season — best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged 45.5 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs this season — third-worst in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers are averaging 10.2 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Chargers averaged 121.6 yards from scrimmage per game (2,067 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

The Chargers have run the ball on 34% of plays (386 carries/1,152 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Jaguars ran 37% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jaguars have gone three and out on 12% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Jaguars ran 39% of their plays in their opponent’s territory last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Jaguars have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Chargers defense allowed 6 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 18 — tied for most in NFL.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (946 carries) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (447 carries) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

The Chargers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats for AFC Wild Card game

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 53% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jaguars defense intercepted 6 of 542 attempts (90.3 pass attempts per int.) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

The Jaguars defense averaged 0.4 interceptions per game (6/17) last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Jaguars defense has missed 210 tackles since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.