NFL Expert Picks Week 8: Colts Offense Thrives Early

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 8 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

With six teams on a bye in Week 8, Sunday’s action features a smaller betting card. Eleven games take place on Sunday, culminating with Steelers vs Packers on Sunday Night Football.

To close out Week 8, it’s Chiefs vs Commanders on MNF. Marcus Mariota is set to start for Washington against Kansas City, which is seeking a fifth win over the last six.

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Broncos vs Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys Spread (+3, -110)

Based on Denver’s lucky win against the Giants on Sunday and their potential defensive regression, my Broncos vs Cowboys prediction is the Cowboys Spread (+3, -110). 

Denver had no business winning outright on Sunday. A pair of Giants missed extra points opened the door for Denver to storm back and kick a game-winning field goal. 

The bigger concern here: How does Denver’s defense stop a powerful Cowboys offense? 

Denver entered Week 7 ranked sixth in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. However, it came against the second-easiest set of opposing offenses. 

They proceeded to allow 5.6 yards per play to the Giants. Now, they play a Cowboys offense off a brilliant showing. 

Even before Week 7, Dallas ranked seventh in offensive DVOA. It marks the hardest opponent for Denver since Week 2 against Indianapolis. 

Lastly, Denver has struggled as a market favorite this season. Only once has Sean Payton’s side covered as a market favorite – Week 4 vs Cincinnati. 

Over the last two weeks, Denver has had two wins by only three points. Accordingly, I predict the Cowboys stay within this number as road pups. 

Patriots vs Browns Prediction: Browns Spread (+7, -110)

Based on New England’s potential offensive regression and the public’s early love for the Patriots, my Patriots vs Browns prediction is the Browns Spread (+7, -110). 

We’ve officially reached the peak of the market in New England. Mike Vrabel’s team has won four straight games, the Pats lead the AFC East and the offense is cooking. 

But this shapes up as a prime regression spot. 

New England ranks 12th in offensive DVOA, but has played the league’s second-easiest set of defenses. By defensive DVOA, Cleveland offers the toughest test to date. 

The concern here is that Cleveland has performed worse against the pass this season. However, even the potential mismatch still offers a glimmer of hope for Cleveland. 

New England’s six opponents this season carry a +19.6% pass defense DVOA rating (zero is average). Five of their six games came against teams 21st or worse with Cleveland sitting 14th. 

In Weeks 1-4, Cleveland played Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love and Jared Goff. Over that span, the team finished 15th in dropback success rate. 

Plus, bettors supporting Cleveland are getting a team wildly underestimated by the public. As of Monday afternoon, 72% of bets are backing New England to cover. 

This season, home teams getting over 63% of tickets are 2-15 ATS. 

Lastly, dogs between +7 and +8.5 with a total between 40.5 and 43 are 19-5-2 ATS since 2023. As a result, I predict Cleveland stays within the number against the Patriots. 

AFC West Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-130) to Win Division

Based on Denver’s fraudulent defensive play and Kansas City’s easy schedule after the bye, I predict the Chiefs (-130) win the AFC West. 

I’m putting the Broncos defense on fraud watch. Through seven games, Vance Joseph’s unit ranks amongst the 10-most variant defenses in the league. 

Put them against Jake Browning, Cam Ward and Justin Fields? Outstanding. 

Put them against Daniel Jones, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert? Garbage. 

Denver sits at 5-2, with three straight wins by four or less, including two miraculous fourth-quarter comebacks. 

Denver has still yet to play the Chiefs. The first game comes in Week 10, with Kansas City coming off a bye. Then, they play in Week 17, with Denver facing a short-week road game. 

Additionally, the offense is BAD. Despite playing the fourth-easiest set of defenses, Denver ranks 19th in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

If Dallas beats Denver outright this weekend, Kansas City likely rises significantly. It would rise again if Kansas City holds serve as a 10-point favorite against Washington. 

Pair that with the Chargers’ injury issues, and I predict Kansas City claims the AFC West yet again.

Steelers vs Packers Prediction: Steelers Under 21.5 Points (-135)

Based on Green Bay’s defensive success against weak offenses this year, my Steelers vs Packers prediction is the Steelers Team Total Under 21.5 Points (-135). 

I rate this game a potential sell-high spot on Pittsburgh’s offense. 

Green Bay offers one of the toughest tests for Pittsburgh’s offense. Entering Week 8, the Packers defense rank seventh in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

It marks only the third time all year the Steelers played a top-10 unit. In Week 2, Mike Tomlin’s team faced a Seahawks defense currently ranked fourth and scored only 17 points. 

That game marks the only time this season Pittsburgh stayed under either of those two numbers. 

They also played Cleveland (5th), scoring 23. However, the Steelers played that game off extra rest while Cleveland returned from London. 

Green Bay has kept all but two opponents under this benchmark. One failure came at Dallas, with the second coming against Arizona. 

However, those teams successfully counterbalanced Green Bay’s defensive strength: the defensive line. 

Pittsburgh carries no such advantage. Per ESPN, the Packers rank seventh and 12th, respectively, in run-stop win rate and pass-rush win rate. 

Conversely, the Steelers rank 13th and 32nd in the corresponding offensive categories. 

Based on those factors, I’ll sell Pittsburgh off a 30+ point performance in Cincinnati. 

Colts vs Titans Prediction: Colts 1H Team Total Over 16.5 Points (-130)

Based on Indianapolis’ outstanding offensive record and Tennessee’s inability to stop the run, my Colts vs Titans prediction is the Colts 1H Over 16.5 Points (-130). 

Indianapolis has cleared this benchmark in all but two games this season. The failures came against Los Angeles (N) and Arizona. 

Those teams remain the only top-half defenses by DVOA that have played a top-half set of offensive opponents, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The Colts offense has consistently bested this number against bad defenses. Across the five remaining games, Indy scored at least 20 first-half points all five times, averaging 20.6. 

That includes a Week 3 performance against Tennessee. Although the team scored a defensive touchdown to get there, Indianapolis notched 20 first-half points at Tennessee. 

Now they’re getting Tennessee at home with a glaring matchup advantage. 

The Colts offense ranks first in rush offense DVOA, while the Titans rank 28th in the corresponding defensive category. 

That should inform success against a Titans defense that has allowed two of its last three opponents to clear this number in the first half. 

NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Five teams qualify as consensus sides for Week 8, defined here as sides getting at least 70% of bets to cover the spread:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4): 88% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Indianapolis Colts (-14.5): 77% of bets placed to cover the spread
• San Francisco 49ers (+1.5): 77% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Atlanta Falcons (-7.5): 75% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): 72% of bets placed to cover the spread

Get NFL public betting data on all Week 8 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.