- The Falcons are a 4-point home underdog against the Bills.
- The Falcons have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a home win.
- My Falcons vs Bills prediction is for the Bills (-4) to cover the spread.
For the first game of a MNF doubleheader, the Falcons welcome the Bills to Atlanta.
Raheem Morris’ team had an early bye in Week 5. Entering Week 6, Atlanta (2-2) sits behind the 4-1 Buccaneers in the NFC South.
Buffalo lost outright in Week 5 as an 8-point favorite against the Patriots. The loss drops Buffalo to 4-1 with the team’s Super Bowl odds moving from +400 to +450.
Bet on Falcons vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Falcons vs. Bills: NFL Week 6 Odds
Falcons vs. Bills Prediction
Based on Buffalo’s advantage via the rushing game and the success of road favorites off a loss as favorites, my Falcons vs Bills prediction is the Bills Spread (-4, -105).
I can’t figure out if this line represents an obvious trap. My concern with Buffalo is that Atlanta arrives with extra time to prepare for this game and sits above two key numbers.
From a matchup standpoint, an advantage presents itself for Buffalo.
Atlanta has struggled to defend the run this season. Through four games, the Falcons defense ranks 11th in rush defense DVOA, according to ftnfantasy.com.
That record comes against a group of teams averaging a -4.43% rush offense DVOA rating. Buffalo enters this game at +6.4%.
Atlanta did win over the third-place Commanders (+9.3%), but it came with Marcus Mariota starting.
Since Week 3, the Falcons defense ranks 28th in defensive success rate against the run. Buffalo’s success has taken a dip of late, but Buffalo still sits sixth for the season.
For Buffalo, the problem this season has been the defense. Including Week 5, the Bills rank 22nd in defensive DVOA.
I’m not sure it’s a problem this week. Atlanta ranks 21st in the corresponding offensive category.
Plus, history suggests this is a strong buy-low spot on the Bills
Since 2019, road favorites at -2.5 or higher that closed as a favorite in the previous game are 43-13-1 ATS (76.8%), assuming two factors:
- The team’s previous game margin falls between -35 and -3
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -11 and +21
When those favorites play a non-conference game: 13-2 ATS. As a result, it’s Buffalo or nothing for me on MNF.
Betting Falcons vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 81% | 58% | 77% | 90% |
| Falcons | 19% | 42% | 23% | 10% |
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