NFL Week 6 Expert Picks: Rams Offense Dominates Ravens

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 6 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins on Thursday with Giants vs Eagles. Philadelphia sits at 4-1 following a loss to the Broncos, while New York dropped to 1-4 with a loss to New Orleans. 

Other standalone games include the Jets vs Broncos in London, Chiefs vs Lions on SNF and a MNF doubleheader: Falcons vs Bills and Commanders vs Bears. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Chiefs vs Lions Prediction: Lions 1H Spread

sed on Detroit’s rest advantage over the Chiefs and Dan Campbell’s exceptional 1H ATS record, my Chiefs vs Lions prediction is the Lions 1H Spread (+0.5, -110). 

Sunday’s game presents a tricky spot for the Chiefs. Kansas City returns home from a road MNF game, while the Lions played on Sunday. 

Although it’s a back-to-back road spot for Detroit, Campbell’s first-half ATS record helps quell that concern. 

Campbell is 38-12-2 ATS (76%) in the first half as a coach, assuming two factors:

• The Lions have 7-14 days between games
• The Lions’ opponent has 6-8 days between games

Most of that success has come as a favorite. In 26 games where Campbell is a 1H favorite, he’s 22-4 ATS. 

However, this team also covered as 2.5-point 1H dogs against the Ravens in Week 3. Over the last four seasons, Campbell posted a 9-2-1 1H ATS record as a market underdog. 

From a matchup standpoint, Detroit owns a massive advantage over the Chiefs defense. 

Excluding Week 5, Detroit ranks fifth in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. On SNF, John Morton’s offense faces a Chiefs defense that is 24th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Of greater concern? Kansas City hasn’t faced a true test in that metric yet. 

Jacksonville (2nd) offers a challenge in Week 5, but Kansas City’s first four opponents averaged a rush offense DVOA percentage of -8.2%. For context, Detroit sits at +10.2%. 

If Detroit runs the ball effectively and keeps the Chiefs offense sidelined, I predict they stay within the number in the first half. 

Saints vs Patriots Prediction: Patriots Spread (-3.5, -110)

Based on the Patriots’ offensive advantage over New Orleans and the success of fading dogs off a cover, my Saints vs Patriots prediction is the Patriots Spread (-3.5, ). 

Week 5 doesn’t change my opinion about the New Orleans defense. Entering the matchup against a Giants offense sans Malik Nabers, New Orleans ranked 30th in defensive DVOA. 

Now the team gets a Patriots offense that really impressed me in Buffalo. Josh McDaniels’ offense averaged six yards per play, including 7.9 yards per pass. 

That should continue against a bad Saints pass defense. 

Excluding Week 5, New England ranked eighth in pass offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. Conversely, the Saints ranked 29th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Plus, New Orleans scored 14 wildly lucky points against the Giants. Rashid Shaheed caught an 87-yard touchdown pass before New Orleans scored on an 86-yard fumble return late. 

The Saints did go 0-for-3 in the red zone, but I question if regression arrives against a good Patriots defense. 

Plus, history suggests it’s profitable to fade dogs off a cover against a team off a win. 

Since 2003, dogs that closed a previous favorite are 36-80-3 ATS (31%), assuming three factors:

• The dog’s previous ATS margin falls between 0.5 and 14.5
• The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +3 and +20
• The dog’s spread is +3, +3.5 or +4

Over the last three seasons, fading those dogs has seen bettors go 14-1-1 ATS, including 5-0 at +3.5 and 1-0 at +4. 

As a result, I predict a second straight win and cover for the Patriots against a weak Saints defense. 

Ravens vs Rams Prediction: Rams Over 27.5 Points (-102)

Based on the Ravens’ bad defense and the Rams’ quality offensive record against good defense, my Ravens vs Rams prediction is the Rams Over 27.5 Points (-102). 

If Houston scored 44 on Baltimore, the Rams might get to 50 against this defense. 

Before playing Baltimore, Houston ranked 22nd in offensive DVOA. Now, the Ravens take on a Rams unit that leads the league in that benchmark, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Additionally, the Rams have achieved this feat against strong defenses. Entering Week 6, Los Angeles has played the sixth-hardest set of opposing defenses. 

That likely explains why the Rams have scored 27.5 points or fewer only once this season. That success came in Week 2 against the Titans, who allowed 33 to the Rams. 

Right now, Baltimore and Tennessee possess comparable defenses. The Titans rank 25th in defensive DVOA, one spot ahead of the Ravens. 

Baltimore has held only one team under this benchmark all season. That came in Week 2 against the Browns, which sits 29 spots behind Los Angeles in offensive DVOA. 

In their four other games – Buffalo, Kansas City, Detroit, Houston – the Ravens defense allowed no less than 37 points. 

It’s also a problematic scheduling spot for the Ravens. The Rams enter Sunday’s game with a mini-bye after Thursday Night Football. 

While staying at home likely mitigates it slightly, their injuries are simply too much to overcome right now. 

As a result, I predict their defensive woes continue against one of the league’s best offenses.

NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 6: Consensus Predictions

Based on NFL public data for Week 6, six sides qualify as a consensus pick with at least 70% of bets placed to cover:

• Indianapolis Colts (-7.5): 87% of bets placed
• Buffalo Bills (-4.5): 83% of bets placed
• Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): 81% of bets placed
• Detroit Lions (+2.5): 75% of bets placed
• Cincinnati Bengals (+14): 73% of bets placed
• Dallas Cowboys (-3): 71% of bets placed

Check out the full NFL public betting data for all Week 6 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.